by Austin Peters
Before the season started, very few could've predicted this Finals matchup.
Golden State came off a disappointing season and a hostile front office situation. Nobody knew how first year head coach Steve Kerr was going to be able to win the locker room over, let alone win games. I'll be the first one to raise my hand and say that I didn't expect Golden State to even make the playoffs.
Now here we are. Kerr finished second in coach of the year voting. Steph is the MVP. Klay Thompson was All-NBA Third Team after nearly being traded last summer. Bogut has finally been healthy for a full season. Draymond made a huge leap this year. Together they've accomplished something no team has ever done before: be the number one ranked defense while also playing at the league's fastest pace.
Cleveland, on the other hand, knows drama all to well.
Cleveland's championship expectations began after LeBron decided to return home and they made the trade for Kevin Love. Kyrie, LeBron, and Love were the new Big 3, supposedly going to lead the Cavs to the promised land. In spite of that, they had a rocky and roller coaster season full of injuries, rumors, and more injuries. This team overcame true adversity, getting back to the Finals for the first time since they got swept in 2007.
And now we are here.
I've been saying all playoffs that when you get this late in the season, it all comes down to being able to hold your own in your individual match ups. When you get to the Finals, every little bit of an advantage you can get makes a world of difference. The biggest question that each team has to face si how they are going to guard their opponent's star player. What are the possibilities that we might see from each team?
How Does Golden State Stop LeBron?
Its no secret what the most daunting task for the Warriors will be: How are they going to guard LeBron James?
It probably is going to be more simple than we are making it out to be. Golden State conceivably has three players they can rotate onto LeBron: Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes, and Draymond Green. Klay more than likely won't be the choice; he is the smallest of three and while he is an elite wing defender, he needs to expend the bulk of his energy on the offensive end.
Everybody is going to expect Draymond to guard LeBron. James has spent the bulk of his touches on offense in the post and Draymond probably has the best size to bang with him. Green isn't as quick as Klay or Barnes, but he is long enough to give anyone problems. The huge disadvantage this creates is that you need Draymond to guard one of Thompson or Mozgov to keep them off the offensive glass.
Barnes did extremely well once Kerr assigned him to James Harden last series. He probably has the best chance of being the guy they use to guard LeBron. He is deceptively strong,being able to guard Zach Randolph the majority of the Grizzlies' series and handling him well. He can hold his own against those LeBron post ups and has the combination of length and speed to stick with him.
I'm breaking down the possible one on one defenders that might guard LeBron because I don't see the Warriors trying anything funky against LeBron. We might see them double, but LeBron has killed teams during the playoffs with his playmaking out of the post.
With how hot Shumpert, JR Smith, and Matthew Dellavedova have been in the playoffs, the Warriors might just have to live with letting their guys try to slow down LeBron by themselves. It's an impossible task, but if any team has the bodies to throw at him, it's Golden State. Plus, when you have someone like Bogut, one of the best rim protectors in the league, it makes it easier to let LeBron do his thing knowing you have the big Aussie to back you up.
What About Steph?
The Warriors have been able to attack mismatches each series thus far. Most of the time, they've decided to attack those mismatches through Curry ball screens, with the screener's man being the guy they can get a mismatch for.
The Cavs have spent the last couple rounds going under on screens, daring guys like Jeff Teague and Derrick Rose to shoot.
The problem is, you can't do that against Steph. He will bury that three before you even blink. Mozgov, as great of a rim protector as he is, won't be able to hang with Steph if he gets dragged out like Curry did against Terrence Jones in the above clip.
The Cavs can't afford to play Mozgov and Thompson together for long. In fact, just as they switched to that starting lineup in the Bulls series, I wouldn't be surprised if they scrapped it in this series. They normally don't play both bigs together much, but that lineup is going to be absolutely unplayable in this series.
Back to Steph... Just like LeBron, there isn't a "best way" to guard him that is going to shut him down. Most would say to hard trap him, but then that allows the big to slip. Both Bogut and Green are extremely good passers. Draymond especially kills it when the other team decides to trap Steph.
Switching is really the only way to go about guarding Curry. As we saw against Jones, however, it usually doesn't end up going well. If you're going to try and slow Steph down, you'll unfortunately have to live with these backbreaking shots he hits way too many times.
Who Wins?
The big x-factor that obviously everybody has beaten to death has been the health of Kyrie Irving. Based on his quotes and just simply seeing him gimp up and down the floor is enough to safely assume that he isn't close to 100%. He has functioned well as a spot up shooter around LeBron but he hasn't been the pick and roll fiend that we know and love. An already sub par defender is going to be horrendously bad trying to guard the likes of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson in this series.
Ultimately, you can expect both Steph and LeBron to be able to continue their run of dominance. Both are MVPs for a reason. They will be able to figure out whatever the other team throws at them because they've faced it all before. As always, it comes down to how you win at the margins. We've seen Steve Kerr exploit mismatch after mismatch in these playoffs and knowing how hobbled Kyrie is, you can bet that he is going to run the kitchen sink at him.
There is no hiding place in the playoffs and unfortunately, the Cavs just don't have the man power to keep up with this historically great Golden State team. Too many guys on this Warriors squad have what it takes to change a series. If Barnes is struggling like he did against Houston, then Iguodala and Livingston can fill in. When Klay struggled against Memphis, Harrison Barnes shouldered a bigger load. That's before we even mentioned Steph. Cleveland just simply does not have the luxury to afford having one or possibly two pieces in their rotation that will be liabilities.
This stinks because if Love was playing and Kyrie was close to healthy, the Cavs would be able to score enough points to maybe make this a series and keep up with the Golden State juggernaut. Alas, we will only be able to sit and wish about what could've been.
Expect Game One to be close because both teams will be figuring each other out. Cleveland's awesome home court advantage will be able to give them a game at the Q. Beyond that, it's hard for me to imagine the Cavs making it any closer than that.
Prediction: Warriors in 5
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