14-15 NBA Season Preview

by Austin Peters and Chase Deaton

Chase and I go through every team and put them in Five categories: Contenders, "One Piece Away," Playoff Contenders, "Wanna Be's," and "Tankers." To recap, here is the breakdown we had in the podcast:

Contenders
West
San Antonio Spurs (DUH)
Oklahoma City Thunder (DUH... again)
Los Angeles Clippers (Added Spencer Hawes)

East
Cleveland Cavaliers (cuz LeBron)

One Piece Away
West
Memphis Grizzlies (best record in the league when Gasol came back)
Portland Trailblazers (need rim protection)
Dallas Mavericks

East
Chicago Bulls (will they be healthy?)
Miami Heat (same team just flip LeBron and Luol Deng)
Indiana Pacers (title contenders last year that lost Lance)
Toronto Raptors
Washington Wizards

Playoff Contenders
West
Golden State Warriors
Houston Rockets (downgraded at SF and traded Lin + Asik)
Phoenix Suns (missed playoffs on the last day last season)

East
Atlanta Hawks (they never miss the playoffs)
Charlotte Hornets (LANCE!!!)
Brooklyn Nets (very different team next season)
New York Knicks (GET THAT MONEY MELO)

Wanna Be's
West
New Orleans Pelicans (good young pieces)
Minnesota Timberwolves (just trade Love already)
Sacramento Kings (what are they doing?)
Denver Nuggets (see Sacramento)

East
Orlando Magic (see New Orleans)
Detroit Pistons (see Sacramento and Denver)

Tankers
West
Utah Jazz (young, but still need to develop)
Los Angeles Lakers (SWAGGY P!!!)

East
Milwaukee Bucks (realized they suck)
Boston Celtics (don't put me through this again Danny!)
Philadelphia 76ers (was there ever any doubt?)

Listen to the full thing HERE.

Surveying the Landscape

by Austin Peters

Since the new CBA has been implemented in 2011, there have been two things that teams have coveted.  I wrote a while ago about how teams covet first round picks more today and how hard it is to get first round picks because of the fact that teams value them highly. The draft is by far the cheapest way to build a team because rookie scale contracts are the cheapest in the NBA aside from veteran minimum contracts. Would you rather overpay Jodie Meeks this offseason at $6+ a year or pay Gary Harris around $1.5 this year to do essentially the same thing? This is a big reason why you don't see teams trading first round picks willy nilly anymore like they used to.

The other coveted thing is cap space. With harsher luxury tax penalties and increasingly difficult ways to build a roster while going over the cap (just ask Pat Riley about it), cap space has been the other premium along with first round picks. Think about how many deals were made these last couple offseasons to create cap space... The Rockets attached a first round pick just to get rid of Jeremy Lin. They also traded Omer Asik for an insanely protected pick. The Nets and Cavaliers both gave up assets to the Celtics (including a first round pick) so they could get rid of contracts and create some financial flexibility.  Teams are always chasing after that star to put them into contention and the best way to do that is by creating cap space and believing that you have a chance to sign them.

Let's back track for a moment.... There were approximately 9 teams that were clearing cap space and trying to make this the offseason where they sign a big name free agent: the Rockets, Mavericks, Lakers, Suns, Bulls, Cavaliers, Heat, Hornets (still weird to say), and Hawks. The Rockets spent the last two summers making countless moves to try and bring in superstar free agents; they brought Dwight Howard in last summer and were darn near close to creating another super team until Chris Bosh decided to play them and stay in Miami. This also effectively pushed Chandler Parsons to Dallas while the Rockets had to settle for Trevor Ariza as a consolation prize. The Mavericks, Lakers, and Bulls, along with the Rockets, were trying to use their cap space to lure Carmelo Anthony. After Melo decided that he had 124 million reasons to stay in New York, they had to pursue other free agents a tier below them. The Mavericks gave Parsons that lucrative offer sheet to try and get Houston not to match (it worked), the Bulls focused on Pau Gasol, and the Lakers struck out on everybody (more on them later). The Cavaliers hit the home run of free agency when LeBron decided to return home. He didn't necessarily leave the Heat in shambles, however, because they were able to use the cap space to bring back Bosh, Wade, and sign Luol Deng. The Hornets went after guys like Deng and Ariza but ended up getting a guy with potentially more upside than all of them in Lance Stephenson (THE 8TH GRADER!!!!). 

Ultimately, the Suns, Lakers, and Hawks were the only teams walking away from this summer with nothing to show for it, forcing them to give bloated contracts to guys like PJ Tucker, Jordan Hill, and Nick Young (SWAGGY P!!!) to fill the cap space.  The reason we saw guys like Meeks, Tucker, Hill, Chris Kaman, and Ben Gordon get such egregiously high contracts is because of the amount of cap space and money floating around on the market. Teams feel they have to overpay guys if they want to get them because a lot of other teams could just as easily offer that player a similar deal.  Factor in the rule that players can't sign contracts for more than four years under the new CBA, and there really isn't any bad contracts anymore. This offseason especially showed that if you attach another asset, any contract is movable.

The teams that missed out on the higher quality players in this free agency will be set back another year but will be perfectly content with rolling that cap space over into next summer. The Lakers essentially repeated what they did last summer by signing guys to one or two year deals so that they will have financial flexibility next summer and the summer after that. Same goes for the Suns and Hawks who both pursued Luol Deng really hard before coming up short.

In the case of the Suns, they were really hoping to get another high caliber player to go along with their dynamic point guard duo of Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe. Bledsoe is a restricted free agent and up until now, the Suns had made it clear they were going to match anything for Bledsoe. With the market dying down and hardly any teams left to offer Bledsoe a max, the Suns low balled him with an offer he didn't like and so now they are playing a game of who blinks first. Phoenix also went out and signed Isaiah Thomas at a cheap price, one of the few value contracts of this free agency.  They've made it clear with the Thomas signing and letting Channing Frye walk, they won't fall into the trap of overpaying role players that eat into their cap space. If they feel that the max is too much for Eric Bledsoe, they will probably let him sign with someone else and try and get assets out of some sort of sign and trade. There aren't too many teams that could create the requisite max cap space it would take to sign Bledsoe, so that's what is making it hard for Eric and his agent Rich Paul to have leverage for that max offer. He is worth every penny of a max; he is a great two way player in a league that doesn't have many two way players to begin with. How many guys become free agents that young who can't just run your team but are also ball hawks on the defensive end? Bledsoe is miles ahead of Steph Curry, Damian Lillard, John Wall, and Kyrie Irving defensively and you wouldn't think twice about giving any of those guys max contracts (Kyrie and Wall just got their max extensions this summer).

2015
Back to the Lakers... Last summer they signed a bunch of guys to one year minimum contracts and ended up tanking their season. After missing out on Melo and others, they did essentially a combination of what they did last summer and what Dallas did last summer; they signed guys to one year contracts but also signed guys to two year contracts so that they won't just have a completely barren roster again next summer. The Mavericks did that last summer and were able to have cap space to sign Parsons this summer while keeping their same core intact. The Lakers will try and replicate that same thing while chasing next summer's big name free agents.

Speaking of next summer... The list of guys that will be free agents (or have the option to be a free agent) next summer are as follows: Rajon Rondo, Kemba Walker (RFA), Ricky Rubio (RFA), Reggie Jackson (RFA), Tony Parker, Goran Dragic, Klay Thompson (RFA), Monta Ellis (Player Option), Eric Gordon (Player Option), Iman Shumpert (RFA), Manu Ginobili, Danny Green,  Arron Afflalo (Player Option), Alec Burks (RFA), Wesley Matthews, Paul Pierce (Player Option), Jeff Green (PO), Jimmy Butler (RFA), Rudy Gay, LeBron James (Please don't do it to us again LeBron), Kawhi Leonard (RFA), Thaddeus Young (ETO), Tristan Thompson (RFA), Kenneth Faried (RFA), David West (PO), Kevin Love (PO), Tim Duncan, Paul Millsap, LaMarcus Aldridge, Marc Gasol, Omer Asik, Roy Hibbert (PO), DeAndre Jordan, Tyson Chandler, Al Jefferson (PO), Enes Kanter (RFA), and Pero Antic (RFA).

Holy cow that's a long list. A lot of those guys are going to fall off the board because of what they decide with their player options. Expect Monta Ellis, Eric Gordon, Paul Pierce, Jeff Green, LeBron (dear God I hope so), Kevin Love (more on him later), David West, and Roy Hibbert to stay under contract because they won't be able to get what they're making now on the open market. Then again, we saw this offseason that anything can happen. Also note that some of these guys will more than likely work out extensions with their teams in the offseason. I could make some guesses as to who that will be, but restricted free agency is weird so we will have to stay tuned. The only lock to get an extension I would say is Kawhi Leonard because Spurs.

I made a list of the teams below that could potentially have lots of cap space and how much they could have free:

Atlanta Hawks - $29.1 million
Boston Celtics - $26.6 million
Los Angeles Lakers - $24.7 million
Memphis Grizzlies - $31.8 million
Milwaukee Bucks - $18.9 million
Minnesota Timberwolves - $27 million
New York Knicks - $25 million
Orlando Magic - $31.8 million
Philadelphia 76ers - $48 million (completely ignore this team)
Phoenix Suns - $25.6 million
San Antonio Spurs - $41.5 million (SOMEBODY STOP THEM. THIS IS NOT A DRILL. REPEAT. THIS IS NOT A DRILL)

There is a lot of assumption in this. The cap is expected to go up to around $68 million and we don't know a lot of the fine details to some of the contracts for free agents this summer yet. The point is that a lot of teams every summer are going to have gobs of cap space because of how important they think it is in building a team.

2016
I eluded to the upcoming NBA explosion in 2016 a little bit at the end of my last column. Teams upgraded their rosters this summer while also keeping financial flexibility for the summer of 2016. The Wizards, Raptors, Heat, and Lakers all signed free agents while still managing to keep cap room for that summer. I have been keeping track of all the offseason movement and if you click on that link, you'll notice a lot of two year contracts that teams signed players too. The cap is expected to sky rocket with the new TV rights deal that the NBA is going to get from ESPN and Turner, and early projections are around $80 million.  That will give just about everybody cap room and the NBA will have to re think their restrictions on max contracts to maybe make them bigger.

Just for fun... The list of the top 2016 free agents are as follows: Mike Conley, Deron Willams (ETO... no way he is opting out but still), Joe Johnson, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, Danilo Gallinari, Chandler Parsons (PO), Nicolas Batum, LeBron James, Kevin Love (again, more on him in a bit), Al Horford, David Lee, Ryan Anderson, Joakim Noah, and Dwight Howard.

See why everyone is freaking out about 2016?

Kevin Love saga continues
It was reported yesterday that both the Warriors and the Cavaliers are finally caving and willing to give up their prized young guys in a Kevin Love trade. I don't know why it took the Warriors so long to make Klay Thompson available. If you're the Warriors and you had to choose whether to give Klay the max next summer while also paying David Lee OR trade for Kevin Love why wouldn't you do that? You would save yourself about $15+ million in payroll AND have one of the 10-15 best players in the league on your team. You can't tell me Klay's agent saw what guys like Hayward and Parsons got on the market this year and isn't going to demand anything less than a max.

I have said many times before in conversation that if I were the Cavaliers that I would trade Andrew Wiggins in a heartbeat if it meant getting Kevin Love. The more and more I think about it, however, I am starting to believe that it wouldn't be such a good idea to trade him. Think about this... No matter how you feel about Wiggins' offensive game and where his potential is with that, everyone believes that he will immediately come in and be one of the best wing defenders in the league. His instincts are off the charts. Add in his length and athleticism and you have another Paul George on that end of the floor.  LeBron is already the best on ball defender in the league. Could you imagine having LeBron and Wiggins on the wing guarding dudes and ripping the ball from them at half court? I am not exaggerating when I say that it would be like MJ and Pippen all over again. That's what you're getting at the very LEAST with Wiggins. You don't think that playing with LeBron is going to be the perfect scenario for that dude? For all the knocks on Wiggins offensively (he isn't assertive, he floats and drifts through games, isn't versatile), he still led a team in scoring that was the best team for the best conference in America. For all the deficiencies that everybody claims he has, that is still pretty darn good.

Sorry, I didn't mean to turn this into an Andrew Wiggins rant. The Cavs as it stands right now have a couple problems on their roster. I talked about them in my last column in detail. They have done a good job of getting shooters like Mike Miller and James Jones (stay tuned for Ray Allen) so that will make it better. Kyrie still needs to improve in that area seeing as he was the second worst spot up shooter in the league behind Michael Carter-Williams statistically. They also need help defensively in the paint and on the ball because of Irving's lack of effort on that end as well.  If you trade Wiggins for Love, not only are you taking out one of your very few good defenders, but you are also adding another defensive liability in Kevin Love. Trading for Love may improve their rebounding drastically but it would hurt them defensively a ton. And if they insist on them taking back Kevin Martin's contract, then you sealed the deal for worst defensive backcourt in the league.

It is also really hard for the Cavs to make a deal for Love. Wiggins hasn't signed a contract so the amount of salary he would be able to contribute to a trade is $0. They don't have any trade exceptions they can absorb Love's salary into so that means that they would have to include one or both of Anderson Varejao and Tristan Thompson. Varejao is LeBron's buddy and Thompson shares an agent with LeBron so you can guarantee those guys won't get traded. Waiters + Bennett + Wiggins + other picks isn't enough salary wise to line up with Kevin Love.  They would have to get another third team in there and do you think anyone is going to help the Cavs get Kevin Love? Probably not.

The other key thing here is a lack of any sort of commitment from Kevin Love. If he doesn't put pen to paper and commit to an extension, Minnesota loses a ton of leverage. He has an opt out for next summer or could just stay locked in until 2016 but even that probably isn't long enough for a team to feel comfortable. Seeing as players aren't signing extensions nowadays because they know they can get more money and years in free agency, it makes sense for Love to be a free agent. It just diminishes any sort of leverage Minnesota thinks they have.

Who knows what will happen. It's the NBA. We learned this summer that anything can happen.

The Prodigal Son and The Ripple Effect

by Austin Peters

This day will never be forgotten.

My two hour out of body experience today began when I was on the toilet (I know this is social suicide but I have to be open and vulnerable to add to the craziness of this day) and received an insane amount of text messages from a total of 13 people. I immediately went to twitter where I spent the next hour refreshing my twitter feed while also having 10 simultaneous conversations and trying not to lose my mind.

After having a couple near meltdowns and spending a couple fifteen minute periods gathering myself, I can finally begin to take it all in. The King has left his South Beach Kingdom to rebuild the one he destroyed four years ago.

LeBron broke the story himself on Sports Illustrated this morning with his incredible letter. Not only did he state his intentions for next season, he listed his reasons for leaving the team he went to four straight finals with; saying that it was time to come home and that with a third child on the way it was a good decision to return to Northeast Ohio (real quick: big shout out to my mom. she called it two days ago. She told me that the wife wanted to go back to Cleveland with the new kid on the way. Nice job, Carrie). A chance to return home and play with an unknown, unproven, young roster was worth more to LeBron than staying with the team that taught him so much about accountability, leadership, and winning.

He only had nice things to say about the Miami Mafia; owner Mickey Arison, Pat Riley, and his best friends, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade. He made the letter as classy as possible. Unlike Dan Gilbert, Mickey Arison expressed his disappointment yet thankfulness for LeBron's four year tenure in Miami.

Speaking of the infamous Dan Gilbert letter, the part of LeBron's masterpiece that I can't get over is the part where he talks about his meeting with Gilbert then ends it with the phrase "Who am I to hold a grudge?" When I read that, I couldn't fight back the tears. The maturity that LeBron has shown over these last four years, starting with "The Decision" fiasco, the promising of rings to the fans, and speaking poorly of them after the 2011 finals, to now preaching messages of family, patience, hope, and forgiveness has been tremendous. It was being reported that the only thing holding up from LeBron fully committing to Cleveland was the letter and to see him write words of forgiveness despite the letter is beyond remarkable. Would you have expected something like this from LeBron four years ago? This isn't just a lesson for us to learn as fans. This will be something that kids growing up watching the game of basketball and being fans of LeBron James will see and learn.

At one point in time, LeBron was criticized for not having won any championships. People murdered him for not winning anything and then chasing rings elsewhere. He got his wish, winning two championships in four years. But Miami had already tasted success. Cleveland hasn't experienced a championship in 50 years and LeBron wants to bring hope and promise to a city that hasn't had much to cheer about since, well, LeBron played there.

He realizes that with a young roster and first year head coach there will be growing pains. Patience will be needed. But it isn't just about the basketball. If he wanted the easy way out, he could've returned to Miami to have another championship contender with the same cast of guys. It's about patience, waiting and working through ups and downs. It's about leadership, teaching younger guys and empowering them to be leaders of their own.  It's about family, remembering his roots and being loyal to the city that raised him.  More importantly, this decision to return to Cleveland is about hope; bringing life to millions of fans who have waited and persevered through lots of pain and trial.

LeBron was right. Returning home wasn't just about basketball.

It's about way more than that.

WHERE DO THEY GO FROM HERE?

Cleveland Cavaliers
As it stands right now, the Cavaliers now have four number one overall picks on their roster in LeBron, Kyrie Irving, and the last two season's number one picks in Anthony Bennett and Andrew Wiggins (#TEAMCANADA). They still have other former top ten picks in Dion Waiters and Tristan Thompson, not to mention LeBron's good buddy Anderson Varejao, who has been with the Cavs with and without the King. The Cavs are reportedly now aggressively pursuing a trade with Minnesota for Kevin Love that would add a third All-Star along with Irving and James. The deal would almost have to include this year and maybe even last year's number one overall picks in Bennett and Wiggins plus additional assets. Cleveland has three first round picks next year which would be great to either use in a deal or hold on to.

Love would solve one of the two problems this roster has: shooting. My good friend McIntyre Webb (@Coach_MWebb) looked up shooting statistics on the Cavaliers current roster. Last year, the three point percentages for guys on Cleveland's team were as follows: Irving 35.8%, Wiggins 34.1% (college), LeBron 40.7%, Waiters 36.8%, Thompson/Varejao 0%. The only knock down shooter on that roster is LeBron, who doesn't shoot many outside jumpers to begin with despite his improving jump shot percentages each year. Irving, Waiters, and Wiggins aren't spot up shooters either as all three shoot better when they create something for themselves off the dribble. We saw in Miami how much success they had surrounding LeBron with spot up, knock down shooters.

It isn't surprising that they are targeting some of LeBron's buddies Mike Miller and Ray Allen. I would be shocked if they didn't end up in Cleveland next season for dirt cheap (it also wouldn't surprise me if Allen retired, however, as it is believed that he is leaning that way). If neither work out, they could look in house. With their second round pick, they drafted Joe Harris from Virginia who was one of the best spot up shooters in the draft who scouts said matched guys like McDermott and Stauskas in workouts. They had also reportedly traded for Stanford's stretch four Dwight Powell (another Canadian by the way!!!) at the draft but as of this afternoon, that deal has not been completed and it looks like Cleveland might be trying to use those assets for another deal. Bennett also has a redeemable season ahead and if he is able to stay in shape this offseason, he has real potential to be a stretch four. Their lineup possibilities are endless; they can go big with LeBron at the three and Wiggins at the two, they could have a shooting lineup that includes one of the above listed shooters and Bennett at the four along with James, and they can also have a killer small ball lineup with Irving, Waiters, Wiggins, James at the four, and any one of Varejao/Powell/Thompson.  If they add Love, that just adds to the unlimited possibilities that innovative new coach David Blatt will have to play around with.

That doesn't solve their other problem, however, and that is rim protection. To beat the Spurs, it was shown last year that the two things needed are shooting and rim protection. The Thunder changed the tide of the Western Conference Finals when Serge Ibaka added his presence at the rim but they came up short because of their lack of reliable perimeter shooting around Westbrook and Durant. The Heat had an endless amount of shooters, but with Chris Andersen's injury they lacked the rim protection needed to stop the Spurs. The team that played the best against San Antonio from a point differential standpoint last season was the Houston Rockets, who had great rim protection in Omer Asik and Dwight Howard plus a plethora of shooters. The Cavs (other than LeBron of course) don't have any of that as it stands today and with Love's defensive deficiencies, he wouldn't any. The Cavs will have to look at some cheap options on the market seeing as it has zero of those rim protectors at the moment. My friend McIntyre also has his own analytical model that values players and rates them according to different metrics. For guys who don't play a lot of minutes that might be cheap, Greg Stiemsma looks like the most valuable guy still left on the market according to his efficiency metric, which takes a look at their win statistics and compares it to their minutes statistics. We took his metric with blocks included and then ran his metric without blocks included and Stiemsma's ratings had a nice jump when blocks were added in. Emeka Okafor is another guy who would provide good rim protection according to McIntyre's Efficiency Rating (MER), but with him sitting out a full season due to injury, it would be hard to see him coming in and giving them what they need. Getting these guys at the LeBron discount (definitely a real thing) would be a worthwhile investment for Cleveland.

Miami Heat
For the first time ever, I have no clue on what a team should do. Without LeBron and presumably Bosh (we will talk about the Ripple Effect in a bit), the only people they have on their roster are Shabazz Napier, Norris Cole, James Ennis, Justin Hamilton, Josh McRoberts, and Danny Granger. One would assume that they would bring back Dwyane Wade and Udonis Haslem, Heat lifers. There is no way that they are on any other big name free agent's list because of how late to the party they would be. They also don't have many draft picks available in the next coming years, so it's not like they can blow it up at all either. With LeBron and Bosh leaving, they are really handicapped as to what they can do. Before, you could've just trusted Pat Riley to do what needed to be done. Now, I'm no so sure they are going to make it out of this offseason alive.

THE RIPPLE EFFECT

I wrote in last year's Free Agency winners and losers column that this summer would be basically a fantasy draft for the league. Are you guys starting to believe me now? I wasn't kidding.

LeBron choosing to leave Miami and go to Cleveland was the scenario that all us basketball junkies dream about because it creates the most pandemonium and roster turnover.  Let's take a look at it piece by piece...

Kevin Love
Minnesota is one of the sneaky winners from LeBron choosing Cleveland. With him choosing to take his talents back home and knowing that the Cavs are going to press hard to bring Love to Ohio, Flip Saunders and the T-Wolves now hold almost all the cards in a potential Kevin Love trade. They can ask for whatever they want. The hold up seems to be over whether or not Cleveland will trade Andrew Wiggins, but if you're Cleveland, you deal him and don't think twice about it if it means bringing in Kevin Love.

Houston Rockets
Chris Bosh would've stayed with the Heat had LeBron decided to stay but not that James is going elsewhere, Bosh is heading to Houston. This has created an incredible amount of shuffling among teams. The Rockets have made the necessary moves to bring him back to his home state of Texas. They are also going to match Chandler Parsons and because they have his Bird Rights, it allows them to match Dallas' offer sheet and go over the cap. I mentioned it on Monday, but Bosh joining the Rockets for Lin, Asik, and a first round pick is just remarkable. If you factor in getting Dwight for nothing, and Harden for 10 cents on the dollar, Daryl Morey is the luckiest GM in the league. With Bosh, their rim protecting, floor spacing McHale Machine will be unstoppable. I mentioned above how they were the best team against the Spurs last season due to these factors and Bosh brings both of those to their team. In my humble opinion, even with the Spurs, the Rockets are the favorites to win the West with Bosh.

Others
Carmelo is the next huge domino to fall. Once he decides (reportedly between a return to New York or Chicago) then it will only get crazier. Guys like Lance Stephenson, Luol Deng, Trevor Ariza, Pau Gasol, and dozens of others will fall to the remnants of teams like Chicago, Phoenix, Dallas, the Lakers, and possibly Miami. People have wondered why guys like Jodie Meeks, Channing Frye, Kyle Lowry, and Marcin Gortat have been overpaid is so that those teams could make sure they locked up the specific guys they wanted before things go crazy after the LeBron decision. Plus, with the amount of cap space floating around on teams and with a rising salary cap and luxury tax, it isn't really a problem for teams to splurge and overpay guys. This will be the interesting subplot going forward now and every offseason.

(Lastly: I want to say this now and plant the seed for you all to remember this in the back of you mind. You think this offseason is crazy? Just wait until 2016. Kevin Durant, Derrick Rose, and many other superstars are going to be free agents. Plus, the NBA's CBA has an opt out in that year and with the amount of power the owners have now, you can bet that we are going to have another lockout. Did I just say that? Yes I did. So don't worry. If this isn't enough for like it definitely has been for me, then just wait. 2016 will be even crazier.)

Sorting Through Insanity: Thoughts on LeBron, Handicapping 2014 Top Free Agents

by Austin Peters

Whoever thought that we would get to this point?

No other sport does the offseason like the NBA. What other sport can you think of where the offseason is just as exciting as the actual product on the court? Everybody loves to dream and think of best case scenarios for their teams. "Wouldn't it be fun to see Player A and Player B play together?!" "It sure would be something if Team X went out and got Player Y!" "Team Z really needs a player like Player A on their team."

This offseason has been the craziest of any offseason in the history of offseasons. It has to be. Yes we had "The Decision" in 2010, but social media and reporting was not at the level it is currently in the summer of 2014. Throw in the amount of landscape changing free agents, and we have a ton of reasons as to why this offseason is the sexiest yet.

Speaking of landscape-changing-free agents... There is a certain free agent that is currently drawing more attention than others. Ever since the final buzzer sounded and the Spurs hoisted their fifth Larry O'Brien trophy, people have been speculating as to whether or not LeBron James will continue to be a member of the Miami Heat, the team he has been to four straight NBA Finals with and won two championships. Everyday there is new information and speculation as to what is going on in the superstar's mind.

Right now, as it stands at 11:21 AM on Monday July 7th, 2014, Free Agency is at a stand still. A week has gone by and there hasn't been any significant free agent acquisitions (depending on how you feel about Spencer Hawes) other than Kyle Lowry and Marcin Gortat re-signing with their squads.  That doesn't change the landscape at all. Guys like Greg Monroe, Isaiah Thomas, Gordon Hayward, Chandler Parsons, Lance Stephenson, Pau Gasol, Luol Deng, and others are waiting for the decisions of the top dogs before they make their own decisions. The dominoes always fall each and every year and free agency always plays out this way; the stars of the market get their money then everyone else gets theirs after them. Carmelo Anthony's decision will most likely come later today (probably while I'm writing this knowing my luck), but nobody knows what is going on with the situation in Miami between LeBron James and the Heat. LeBron is taking his sweet time with his decision; he took a vacation, has his skills academy this week, and will go to Brazil to watch the World Cup. He is creating a lot of uncertainty and anxiety amongst not just fans but also front office executives and other players.

LeBron has put the Heat in a tough position. He has said that he wants to see what Pat Riley, Mickey Arison, and co. can do in Free Agency before he decides to return to South Beach. The Miami Mafia has been aggressive on that front, meeting with guys like Kyle Lowry, Marcin Gortat, Trevor Ariza, Pau Gasol, Marvin Williams, Josh McRoberts, and others. None of these guys, however, are willing to commit to Miami unless there is certainty that Miami will retain LeBron, Bosh, and Wade. Chris Bosh has also said that he will return to Miami for less money if LeBron stays. Ditto for Wade. But there is a huge problem at the center of all this... LeBron won't commit unless he sees improvements in the roster but Riley can't add improvements unless LeBron commits. It is a matter of "who blinks first?"

LeBron holds all of the cards and his hand is a lot better than people seem to understand. He not only controls what the Miami Heat are doing in free agency. He doesn't just control where all other free agents land. LeBron James has control over the entire NBA. However much the power of the league shifts (and it could be a GIGANTIC shift if LeBron decides to leave) rests on LeBron's huge shoulders. Literally, the weight of the NBA is in his hands.

Where will The King build his new Kingdom?

It will be interesting to see how it plays out. LeBron's agent, childhood friend Rich Paul, has met with Phoenix, the Lakers, Cleveland, Dallas, and Houston. It was also reported yesterday that Paul, whose agency is based out of Cleveland, is pushing for a return to Cleveland for the Akron-born superstar. Chris Broussard of ESPN even said his gut tells him LeBron is returning to Cleveland. Sources out of Cleveland say they have deals lined up to clear cap space to make room for a max contract if LeBron decides to return home. He is meeting with Pat Riley within the next couple days to discuss whatever it is that LeBron wants to discuss.

The fact that LeBron is agreeing to meet with Riley and isn't meeting with any other teams face to face has to be a good sign for the Heat. One thing we know for sure is that Pat Riley is a genius and has a way of convincing people to do what he wants. LeBron definitely realizes the power he has, though. He understands his influence and how much of the situation he controls. It will be interesting to see what comes of that meeting and what direction Riley and LeBron's camp goes; if they go the same direction or if they decide to go opposite paths.

Ultimately, as I've adamantly said from Day One (here, here, and here) of this mess, I believe that LeBron will return to Miami. It is still really hard for me to believe that LeBron would return to an owner that wrote a very hurtful letter about him and a city that burned his jerseys.  Brian Windhorst (the man who has covered LeBron since he was in high school, written two books about LeBron, and who LeBron admits to knowing more about his life than maybe he even knows) said this morning on "The Herd" that he has three sources that he trusts more than any other (one of them being LeBron) and he hasn't heard from any of those three sources an interest in any other team other than Miami. It will be interesting to see what happens and how it plays out. Until then, LeBron has everybody on pins and needles awaiting his deicision.
Prediction: Miami 80%, Cleveland 15%, Other 5%

Melo Mania

As I said earlier, Melo's decision is supposed to come today. It was reported over the weekend that the only two teams that are in the discussion now are the Lakers and Knicks because they can offer him the most money. Teams like Dallas, Chicago, and Houston have all moved on to other players. He also has homes in both places and spends his summers in Los Angeles. His decision also factors into the Pau Gasol decision because apparently (for whatever reason) Pau is considering following Melo wherever he goes.

The tipping point in Melo's decision? His wife, TV show celebrity Lala, said that she wants to stay in New York. Key rule in life: happy wife, happy life. Not sure Melo would be wise to upset that balance.
Prediction: New York 55%, Los Angeles Lakers 40%, Other 5%

Chris Bosh

Chris Bosh is another key cog in "Decision 2.0." He wants to stay in Miami if LeBron stays. If for some reason LeBron might decide to leave, Houston is aggresively pursuing him. As of this afternoon, they have offered him a full four year max contract and he is seriously considering it. Bosh would be a great fit next to Dwight Howard. But as it stands today, Miami is his preferred destination unless LeBron leaves.

If he does leave, you have to be happy for him getting max money and playing in his home state of Texas. Also, if he does end up in Houston, what a job by Daryl Morey to bring in Chris Bosh and only costing him Omer Asik, Jeremy Lin, and maybe a pick. Amazing to think about.
Prediction: Miami 75%, Houston 25%

Dwyane Wade

Wade isn't going anywhere. There aren't any other teams that are exploring a possibility of bringing Wade in. He is going to re-sign with the Heat. The only question is for how long and for how much? This obviously depends on what happens with LeBron and Bosh's decisions.

I quickly want to point something out concerning Wade... I know that a lot of people don't think that he is anything worth a darn anymore. He hangs out on the baseline like a big waiting for a drop pass, he doesn't space the floor because he can't shoot, and he can't explode to basket like he used to be able too. His knees have made it so he can't play a full season and definitely could be the reason for his struggles in the playoffs. Despite all of this, Dwyane is still a 20-5-5 guy when he is on the floor who gets in passing lanes, makes incredible off ball cuts, and can be a secondary ball handler. Yes it is a huge chore just to get him on the floor at anything close to 100%. But to think that he isn't worth a darn or isn't a key piece on a championship team anymore is just false.
Prediction: Miami 100%

The Restricted Free Agent Market

Restricted Free Agents are so tricky. Teams other than their previous team have all the chips and they have zero say in the matter when it comes down to it. Other teams get hesitant to offer contracts in fear that the team will match. They can't overpay either because then the team could choose not to match and they would be stuck with a player they overpaid (see Omer Asik, Jeremy Lin).

Gordon Hayward and Chandler Parsons are drawing interest from similar teams and are the first two guys that teams will be calling after Melo and LeBron make their decisions. The Hawks, Mavericks, Suns, Cavaliers, Hornets, Lakers, Rockets, Celtics, and Bulls are all similar teams on these guys' lists. They both can't go to the same place so it will depend on where LeBron and Melo end up deciding. Also, in reference to Parsons, he is a key piece in any sort of Kevin Love or Rajon Rondo trade that might happen with the Rockets.
Gordon Hayward: Utah 75%, Cleveland 17%, Celtics 2.5%, Suns 2.5%, Other 3%
Chandler Parsons: Rockets 45%, Dallas, 25%, Bulls 10%, Timberwolves, 10%, Celtics 5%, Other 5%

Monroe is trickier than the above two guys because the Pistons are really determined to keep him and trade Josh Smith for just about anything. Monroe has also had talks with front office members about the kind of stuff he wants to happen in order for him to stay. Not sure how much good it is going to do seeing as the Pistons can just simply match an offer sheet, but for now, it looks like he is returning to be a Piston.
Greg Monroe: Detroit 97%, Other 3%

Isaiah Thomas almost seems like a lock not to return to the Kings after they low-balled him with an offer and overpaid for Darren Collison. On the flip side, it is hard to gauge how much interest he is getting from other teams. I'm going to go ahead and say the Pistons seem like the frontrunner because they are the only team that has offered him a deal so far. Also, like Parsons, he could be a piece in any sort of Rondo deal between Sacramento and Boston.
Isaiah Thomas: Detroit 33%, Boston, 20%, Dallas 17%, Sacramento 15%, Other 15%

Eric Bledsoe, like Monroe, is another guy that is hard to see anywhere else but his previous team. Phoenix has said multiple times they are willing to match any max contract that other teams throw at him. But it is also interesting to see how much Bledsoe and Dragic have been in trade rumors recently. In this day in age, you can't rule anything out but I'm not sure why they would wanna shake things up in spite of the success that Hornacek had with the dual point guard lineup.
Eric Bledsoe: Phoenix 99.5%, Other 0.5%

LANCE!!!

Lance reportedly turned down an offer for 5 years, $44 million from the Pacers. Indy is really close to the luxury tax and it might seem like they are ready to let Lance walk. But Lance is still training at the Pacers' practice facility and there aren't too many teams interested in meeting with him. This could mean a couple things... The Pacers could be planning a huge shakeup. With Larry Bird, don't rule that out. They are trying to land Rondo and Goran Dragic and also are shopping Roy Hibbert and George Hill. They might end up having the same roster next season but don't be shocked if something huge happens in Indianapolis. My personal favorite landing spot for Lance is Chicago. I feel like he would be a great fit with Rose and Butler and Thibs no nonsense locker room.
Prediction: Indiana 50%, Chicago 20%, Dallas 15%, Lakers 10%, Other 5%

Luol Deng

Deng is being pursued hard by the Hawks. They have the cap space to offer him the money he is asking and they signed Thabo Sefalosha hoping that he would be able to recruit his close friend Deng. Also, any team mentioned above is a candidate to have Deng after the LeBron mess gets sorted out.
Prediction: Atlanta 40%, Dallas, 30%, Los Angeles (either Lakers or Clippers) 20%, Miami 10%

Pau Gasol

I know that Pau wants to play with Melo, but why? That just seems strange. He and Kobe are also close so it wouldn't be surprising if Pau returned to LA now that Mike D'Antoni is out. He has also met with Miami and OKC and personally, I would love to see him play for OKC. I think he is a perfect fit for that team and would work perfectly in their offense. Not to mention he would be a great locker room presence. Sadly, they are probably the last team on this list. It is going to be hard to choose between NY and LA, no matter what Melo decides. It is going to be hard for NY to make room for him if that is eventually where he wants to go.
Prediction: Lakers 42%, New York 38%, Miami 15%, OKC 3%, Other 2%

Are We Surprised?

by Jordan Britt

On Monday June 30, news broke that Jason Kidd, the former coach of the Brooklyn Nets, has been traded to the Milwaukee Bucks for two second round draft picks. Here are the facts: Jason Kidd is a known jerk. The Bucks are young and for the most part, irrelevant. And Brooklyn is trying to make money fast under the guise of ‘winning’ basketball games. My initial question is: are we really surprised? 

Jason Kidd

Kidd had an abysmal season as a first year coach with the Brooklyn Nets. Yes Brooklyn made the playoffs, and yes they beat Toronto. But let’s back up a minute here and look at this again. Let’s start with Brooklyn’s roster… Brooklyn, a team with KG, Paul Pierce, Deron Williams, and Joe Johnson, was the six seed in the East. Now, I am the first to admit that KG and the Truth are way past their prime, but I am a big believer in locker room leadership and experience. Joe Johnson and Deron Williams are both young enough to play very good and effective basketball. Johnson probably needs to be more assertive as a scorer and go-to-guy. Williams needs to sharpen up his point guard play and find the D Will that tore through teams in Utah. Regardless, those two are fine. As for the rest of the team, they did suffer a big blow in the loss of Brook Lopez, but this led to the coming out party of Mason Plumlee, who had a very good rookie year. Also, Shaun Livingston came back from a tragic career plagued by injuries and not only played as an effective back-up point, but also had everyone who has a heart tearing up a little. Andray Blatche is hit-or-miss, but there is no doubt he is talented. He has potential to be a very skilled big man, although his chance of being a dominant big in the NBA is probably gone now. But if you look at this roster, they are about 7 deep of high quality players. And in the second half the season, you saw the team that most people had been waiting for all year. But the question posed is, “Who gets the credit?"

I personally would like to give that credit to the veterans, KG and Paul Pierce. Those two led many untalented rosters to playoff berths throughout their entire careers, until they united in Boston with Ray Allen (but that is another story for another day). KG and Paul Pierce know, and know very well, what it means to be on a bad team. KG CARRIED those Minnesota teams. KG might be in the discussion for greatest power forward of all time had he not run into the greatest power forward of all time so many times (Tim Duncan). Pierce played on a Boston team where he was the best player and the number two options fluctuated between Antoine Walker and young Al Jefferson. No disrespect to any of those players, but neither of them is a top tier All-NBA guys. KG, Pierce, Johnson, and Williams have been at least once in their careers. This is where I think we can say that Pierce and KG made Jason Kidd’s job a lot easier. It is very easy to coach when you have two locker room leaders who play and act like coaches on the floor with All-NBA talent surrounding them. Not to mention that both KG and Paul Pierce tend to find something left in the tank in critical moments. These guys are old, but they are not, and never will be, scrubs.  

Let us also take a brief look at the Eastern Conference in two words: Top heavy. We have all heard this before, so I’m going to make this short… The only legitimate title contenders this year by the All-Star break from the East were Indiana and Miami. Chicago lost Rose early on and it is hard to convince me that Toronto ever really had a chance to win the Eastern Conference. I am happy that this organization was able to win some games after falling on rough times, but they are not built to win titles, they are built to make the playoffs in the East. The Wizards are the same way and so on down the line. On the other hand, the West was loaded with 3-4 teams that were legitimate title contenders this year. I’ll sum up my conference analysis: the West REALLY, REALLY good and the East weak. 

Now back to Jason Kidd… The guy took a roster that was built to beat Miami and that was loaded with talent (albeit aging talent) and got them the six seed and a win over a young Toronto team with as much playoff experience as me (to clarify, I’ve never been in the NBA playoffs, but I did make the playoffs in intramurals this year). Congratulations, Coach Kidd, you relied heavily on veterans to get to the second round and get nearly swept by the team you were made to beat… Jason Kidd cannot coach. Great players do not always translate to be good coaches. There are exceptions to this rule like Larry Bird, KC Jones, or Lenny Wilkens (I’d say Doc Rivers, but he is not enshrined in the Hall of Fame as a basketball player so he was a really good player not a great player). But generally the best coaches were average or pretty good basketball players in the League. Here are some names: Pat Riley, Phil Jackson, Doc Rivers, Lionel Hollins, Doug Collins, and Scott Skiles. I’m not claiming that these are the best coaches ever, but this is a pretty decent list of coaches who all have done pretty well in the league. Kidd, on the other hand, was a great teammate of a player but not necessarily a locker room leader. The 2011 Mavs squad was Dirk’s team along with a very good and often underrated coach in Rick Carlisle. Kidd just didn’t turn the ball over. As a coach, he started off with a suspension for a DWI. More to the point is the infamous water-spilling incident. That may not indicate whether he can draw up a good play or not, but it does indicate it must take him longer than other coaches.  

So let’s ask ourselves, “What makes a good coach?” For starters; wins, player popularity, and ability to maximize potential talent on a roster. Kidd won…kind of. He got a six seed in the East that we have already established is terrible. They then lost second round after Toronto imploded. I know that Kidd is not popular with the front office and he has been rumored by both the NY Times and USA Today to have made power plays for control of the team. Interestingly enough, I’ve never heard anyone on the Nets compliment Kidd as a coach. Other players compliment their coaches. Erik Spoelstra gets shout outs. Gregg Popovich is basically worshipped. Doc Rivers was, and still is, highly praised by his players. Now two of those players played with Doc and those guys are all but silent in regards to Kidd. Sometimes silence speaks louder than words. Also, when has anyone ever heard of a coach with legal issues that were not related to divorce? Kidd was suspended at the beginning of the year with a DWI. If it’s a player, it’s probably fine he’s partying too hard. If it’s the coach, why isn’t he watching game film or working with the front office? Not to mention most people forgot about the alleged history of Kidd’s spousal abuse that we can only hope is untrue. This guy is not a nice guy. Larry Bird and Charles Barkley call these kinds of guys “knuckleheads.” Last I checked good or great coaches were not “knuckleheads.” 

 

The Milwaukee Bucks trying to make Bucks and the Brooklyn Nets business model 

Milwaukee was bad last year. Really bad. To make it worse, they were bad in the East. Fortunately, they got Jabari in the draft so they’ve made one off-season move that will help. But I don’t understand the hiring of Jason Kidd. What does it get you? We don’t know that he can develop players or that he can even coach. Why would Milwaukee do this? I think I have an answer. They are imitating the Brooklyn Nets model from last year. Make money under the guise of winning basketball games. I do think Brooklyn was trying to win some games. They have too much talent on that roster to believe otherwise, but they also have too much public spectacle and absurd hiring to think that they weren’t just trying to create a cheap show to sell tickets. Why hire Kidd? Here’s why: he played for the Nets back in Jersey, he’s new and interesting, and Brooklyn fans need a reason to go to the Barclays Center instead of the Garden. So why not go for broke by getting NBA Vets at the last part of their popularity and then pair them with a brand new coach who is beloved by the fan-base? At the very least you’ll sell some tickets, something New Jersey could never seem to do. The Bucks are doing the same thing. They stink, and next year they’ll stink again. They will be better with Giannis and Jabari leading the way, but not enough to be a dominant team or to even contend with the Pacers, Heat, or Bulls. But their attendance is low and has been for a while so why not take a flyer on a guy like Kidd after drafting Jabari? At the very least you’ll sell some tickets.

This is where I get skeptical. I am not sure that this move is a move that is made to win games, but rather to make money. Generating fan interest is good, but winning also generates fan interest. Just ask small markets like Oklahoma City, Indiana, San Antonio, or Portland. Milwaukee isn’t exactly a thriving metropolis and money isn’t flying around up there, but that doesn’t mean you can’t build a winner. San Antonio has been doing it for over 15 years. Jabari is a high character guy like Tim Duncan; he’s the kind of person that will be loyal to fans if they are loyal to him. He’s also the kind of player that will go where he thinks he can win. Like I said, winning generates fan interest and fan interest produces money. I know it’s not that simple in real life, but I think it is not as complicated as Brooklyn and Milwaukee have made it. You don’t need to take flyers to sell tickets, just build a good team and develop the young talent you have with a solid veteran coach. You don’t even have to get a player coach. These kids are young and don’t have as much stake in coaching styles. They need discipline so they can figure out the game.

Is Jason Kidd a Good Hire?

Let me start by saying that I am sorry Larry Drew was fired. That does not bother me, as much from a front office standpoint, new guys have to bring in people that they feel like they can work with and know. Is it always right? Nope. But is it at least understandable? Yes. I’m sorry Larry Drew did not get the chance he deserved; I hope he finds success somewhere else.

Now the main point: was Jason Kidd a good hire for Milwaukee?

I’m going to say no for several reasons. First, Kidd is unproven. What has he done? Won a playoff series against one of the youngest teams in the league? He had more NBA experience on that roster than pancakes at IHOP. They actually knew the difference between playoff basketball and regular season ball. Second, there is no proof he can develop young talent. Admittedly Mason Plumlee did get better this year, but how much of that was going against KG, Brook Lopez and Andray Blatche every day in practice? And how much of Plumlee’s success was because Kidd knew how to exploit match-ups? Hardly any. Plumlee is a hustle player who outworked guys to get rebounds and scored off of good interior passing and offensive rebounds. Plumlee is good. I’d sign him in a heartbeat, but he’s not a hard player to develop. Did Kidd get any other young player better? Not that anyone can remember or even think of. Third, Kidd can’t out-scheme guys. If you watch a Brooklyn Nets game, they do not beat you off of great set plays. They beat you off of good on-ball defense, offensive skill, savvy, and size inside to rebound. I would’ve been very impressed with Kidd had he beat Toronto and won more than one game against Miami. As it stands, I am not. Having said that, I will admit that I may be eating my words at this time next year. Kidd did lose Lopez early on and then had to coach a very bizarre roster in terms of its make-up. But as it stands, I do not think he makes Milwaukee better.