The Bulls/Cavs series is set. We've been waiting for this series all season long. What could this series look like and who is going to move one step closer to an NBA championship?
by Austin Peters
I've tried to watch as much of the first round as humanly possible for a college student in the last semester of his undergrad career. The majority of the series that I have been able to watch were Bucks/Bulls and Cavs/Celtics. I've also watched every game in the Spurs/Clippers series, but as for the other five, I've watched minimal to none.
I say this to explain to you the reason why this is the only second round series that I have a really good feel for. This second round matchup was definitely much awaited for, but will it really be as close as we think?
2 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 3 Chicago Bulls
Both of these teams had completely different paths to the second round. Cleveland had an interesting series against the Celtics that was probably more competitive than the Cavs wanted it to be. They were able to turn it on whenever they wanted and showed in Game 4 how much better of a team they really were than Boston. The Bulls, on the other hand, grinded their way to a 3-0 lead before dropping Games 4 and 5. After seeming like they were on their heels, Chicago ran Milwaukee off the floor in Game 6.
This is the second round matchup everyone wanted. The Bulls hate Lebron, Derrick Rose returning to the playoffs, Thibs vs. Blatt, Chicago's big lineup vs. Cleveland's small ball. All the story lines are interesting and make this arguably the second most interesting second round series (behind Rockets vs. Spurs/Clippers of course).
Breakdown
Cleveland dominated Boston in the paint last series. The Celtics have a fairly weak front line, so this isn't saying much. But with Tristan Thompson and Timofey Mozgov, the Cavs have two monster rebounders who feast on the boards. Against the Celtics, the Cavs' defensive rebounding percentage went up 14.5% with Mozgov on the floor and Tristan Thompson was one of the best offensive rebounders in the league this season. Losing Love hurts because Love has always been one of the best guys on the glass, but with Thompson and Mozgov, the Cavs aren't going to be at a disadvantage at all against the Bulls.
I would even take it a step further and say that the Bulls are going to have lots of trouble with the Cleveland frontline. Before the mammoth blowout in Game 6 (I think we can all agree that is a pretty significant outlier), the starting front court of Noah/Gasol was a mere +1.8 when on the court together. That was going up against a Bucks front line that isn't anywhere near the caliber of rebounders and finishers that the Cavs have at their disposal.
I've written before about what the Bulls should do with their front court, and the Bucks completely exposed the problems this frontcourt has. Noah especially has been bad, with the Bulls being a net negative 3.2 before Game 6 when he was on the court. He just isn't fast enough to guard fours, like I pointed out in my previous piece about Chicago. He is allowing opponents to shoot 55.6% when he is protecting the rim, making him an absolute target when he is on defense. The Noah/Gasol frontcourt is bad already and factor in the fact that whoever Cleveland has on the floor at PF is going to be small, Noah is going to be absolutely unplayable in this series. You think Noah is going to be thrilled that he has to guard LeBron or chase around whatever guard they have out there? The Rose/Butler/Dunleavy/Noah/Gasol lineup has played the second most minutes of any five man lineups in the playoffs and ten more minutes than any other lineup the Bulls have. Doesn't seem optimal.
A lot was made about Derrick Rose's incredible Game 1 performance. It was vintage Derrick and super fun to watch. Want I really want to do is point something out that is extremely important for Rose specifically. Let's look at his stats each game in the Bucks series:
Game 1 - 23/0/7, 4 turnovers, 9-16 from the field, 3-7 from gothree (2 days rest)
Game 2 - 15/7/9, 3 TOs, 4-14, 2-6 (1 day rest)
Game 3 - 34/5/8, 3 TOs, 12-23, 5-9 (2 days rest)
Game 4 - 14/5/6, 8 TOs, 5-13, 2-4 (1 day rest)
Game 5 - 13/4/2, 6 TOs, 5-20, 0-7 (1 day rest)
Game 6 - 15/5/7, 2 TOs, 6-14, 3-7 (2 days rest)
Games 1 and 3 were monster games for Rose. Holy cow that Game 3 stat line is incredible. But just two days later, he laid an egg and then followed it up with an even worse performance in Game 5. He will have three days rest before game one of the Cleveland series, but after that, its every other day for the Bulls until Game 7. By then, the series might already be out of reach. We know how much Thibs loves to overplay his starters, making this an even more worrisome factor to point out. You can count on Shumpert giving Rose a harder time than MCW as well. Shumpert was able to keep Isaiah Thomas in check when Blatt gave him the assignment.
There isn't any sort of silver lining for the Bulls. Their best lineup is any lineup featuring Rose/Butler/Dunleavy/Gasol plus one of Mirotic/Gibson at the four. That works against most teams and I would even argue that if Love was healthy, then they would have an advantage because of Love's inability to guard either Mirotic or Gibson. But since LeBron will be playing heavy minutes at the four, it is discouraging for the Bulls to realize that their best lineup not only doesn't have a chance at stopping LeBron, but they're both dealing with injuries (Mirotic's knee and Gibson's ankle).
On the flip side, Cleveland is dealing with a few problems of their own. For as much flack as Love received during the regular season, he seemed like he was finally comfortable fitting in when the playoffs began (18/9/3, 42/47/74 shooting, +9). The injury to Kevin Love also takes away a secret weapon the Cavs rarely used during the regular season, and that's playing Love at center. That type of tweak would've roasted the Bulls and might've been the go-to lineup against the spread game the Hawks have (assuming that's who makes it to the conference finals).
JR Smith is also a huge loss for the Cavs in the first two games, thanks to one of the most idiotic plays I've ever seen. While he shot pretty terrible in the series (37/27/50), he led the team in +/- with a solid 9.8. Just the threat of JR being out there is enough to give the Cavs the type of spacing they need. The luxury that the Cavs have is they can plug guys in like Matthew Dellavedova, James Jones, and Mike Miller to spot up for 6-8 minutes a game and knock down shots. We've seen Mike Miller hit to many big shots to think he can't come in and contribute.
The Bulls also have literally no one to stop the Cavs' offense, as depleted as it might be. We already pointed out how the Bulls frontline is going to struggle against the Cavs. Jimmy Butler almost has to guard Kyrie but if that's the case, then the Bulls will get destroyed by LeBron, who will almost certainly relish the opportunity to go one on one against Joakim Noah or any guard the Bulls throw on him. Put Butler on LeBron, then you are relying on Rose's shaky consistency to guard Kyrie and Noah is having to chase around Iman Shumpert or James Jones.
Who wins?
The outlook does not look bright for the Bulls. This is the series we've been waiting for every season it seems. Ever year, we all want to see LeBron vs. the Bulls just like we did in 2011. Every year its the Bulls and LeBron's team predicted to be in the Eastern Conference Finals. We finally get it this year, but it isn't going to be as great of a series as everyone thinks. Unfortunately, the Bulls are just outmatched and seem likely to fall, even if the Cavs are short handed. I'll give the Bulls a game, but to think that they have the flexibility to compete with Cleveland seems like a reach to me. The playoffs becomes a chess game all about matchups, and this one seems like checkmate for the Bulls.
Prediction: Cavaliers in 5
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