The Bulls are a completely different team from last year, but it has been nothing short of a roller coaster season in Chicago. What is it that has everybody in a panic?
by Austin Peters
I don't know if anyone can think of a team that has had worse luck the last three seasons than the Bulls. Derrick Rose tore his ACL in the playoffs in 2012, forcing him to miss the 12-13 season, followed by another knee injury that sidelined him the entire 13-14 season. Guys like Joakim Noah, Jimmy Butler, and Taj Gibson have all missed a handful of games each year. They've sifted through so many different rotation players; CJ Watson, Nate Robinson, DJ Augustin, Aaron Brooks (there will definitely be a "Tom Thibodeau back up point guard" post in the future), Kyle Korver, Luol Deng, Mike Dunleavy, Kirk Hinrich, Omer Asik, Carlos Boozer, Nazr Mohammed, Kirk Hinrich, Nikola Mirotic, Pau Gasol, and Kirk Hinrich again. It is probably safe to say that we haven't ever seen a Bulls team play the way they were meant to be constructed.
This year hasn't been much different. The Bulls went through sort of a roster overhaul in the offseason. They released Carlos Boozer via the amnesty provision to create cap space to sign Pau Gasol and bring over former first round pick Nikola Mirotic. They signed Aaron Brooks, drafted Doug McDermott, and welcomed Derrick Rose back into the fold.
Any time you go through transition and change in the major parts of your roster, it is going to create a a lot of inconsistency in the on court product. Just ask Cleveland. Through December, the Bulls were a solid 22-10, rolled off a seven game winning streak, and beat teams like the Clippers, Grizzlies, Blazers, and the Raptors (twice). 2015, however, hasn't been to kind to Chicago. Since the turn of the calendar, the Bulls are 12-10, with losses to the Lakers, Magic, and Jazz. While they currently sit on a four game winning streak, that hasn't stopped fans from worrying about Derrick Rose and Tom Thibodeau's future.
ON THE COURT
The 14-15 version of the Bulls looks completely different than the 13-14 team. This year, they're 8th in offensive rating (the amount of points scored per 100 possessions), way up from 28th last year. Adding Pau Gasol, Nikola Mirotic, Derrick Rose, and factoring in Jimmy Butler's leap, it makes sense that their offense would take a giant step forward.
The big difference has been the way they run their motion. Last year, Joakim Noah finished top five in MVP voting, and deservedly so. Chicago ran pretty much every play through him at the elbow.
75% (12/16) of Noah's touches came at the elbow during that video montage. The Bulls wanted to utilize Joakim Noah's ball handling and passing ability from facing up at the elbow, and you can see how it just killed teams. Seriously, how many seven footers do you know that can do this?
This year, however, it has been much different. With Rose and Pau now in the fold, you're seeing a lot more pick and roll with the two.
This has been great for Pau. He was voted an All-Star starter this year and is averaging a double-double. Using his post up and passing skills is very advantageous for the Bulls.
The issue here is that the Bulls already had a passing All-Star big man in Noah. Running the offense through Gasol renders Noah almost useless when they are on the floor together. Neither is a reliable enough jump shooter to create spacing for others. When they play together, the lane gets congested, making it a lot harder for Rose and Jimmy Butler to squeeze into spaces to penetrate.
Gasol did a nice job cleaning the offensive glass, but notice that as Rose starts to drive, Jordan Hill doesn't care at all about guarding Noah. He just sags all the way into the paint so that he can contest Rose at the rim. Playing Mirotic or Gibson alongside Pau would help because both are reliable jump shooters, and Thibs has played with the idea of bringing Noah off the bench. That could be a huge blow to his confidence, after being an All-Star and top five MVP candidate just a year ago. But with Gasol now on the squad, they need that extra spacing when one of Noah or Gasol is on the floor.
This would definitely help Rose as well. Derrick hasn't been himself this season. He has flashes where you can see MVP Derrick Rose, but for the most part, his explosiveness and creativity just isn't there anymore.
But when he has those flashes, you can see that maybe, possibly, he could get back to MVP form, if he stays healthy.
Thibs should consider resting Rose every so often, and maybe even do a "no back-to-back" rule like some other players do (HAHA!!! I just made myself laugh. Thibs rest players? C'mon people. You didn't think I was serious did you?).
Defensively, the Bulls have gone from ranking 2nd in the league last year in defensive rating to 13th this season. It may seem like they should've gotten better this year getting Rose back and ditching Carlos Boozer. But as much as everyone pounded Boozer for his individual defense, he was at least athletic enough to stick with power forwards and work within the Bulls' defensive scheme. Noah, as spry and athletic as he is for a center, isn't athletic enough to guard power forwards, especially guys like Kevin Love and Paul Millsap that like to roam the perimeter. They're at their best, again, when they have one of Noah or Gasol on the floor with more rangier forwards like Gibson or Mirotic.
Notice how Gibson was able to closeout fast enough on a shooting big, Jared Sullinger. If that was Noah or Gasol trying to close out, they wouldn't be able to get there in time. Playing Gibson or Mirotic (#FREEMIROTIC!!!) seems like it is the best for the Bulls on both ends of the floor, and in more ways than one.
FRONT OFFICE
The other day, I had a guy in one of my classes bring up a debate: right now, would you rather have Pau Gasol or Kevin Love? My initial answer was Kevin Love, seeing as he is nearly a decade younger than Gasol and just entering the prime of his career. But if you factor in production this year (Gasol is an All-Star starter; Love's numbers have declined this year) and contract (Gasol just signed a 3 year, $21 million deal this last summer; Love is on the last year of a max contract), I had to think about it a little more. While I would still take Kevin Love, the question is a lot trickier than you think when you ask it this way: would you rather pay Gasol $14 million over the next two seasons, or Kevin Love $120 million over the next five? Gosh I love the NBA......
The Gasol contract has to be one of the ten best contracts in the league right now. Pau and Paul Millsap are the two names that stick out when you think about All-Star players making less than $10 million a year. There is a possibility Gasol could start to decline in the last couple years of his deal due to his age, but for now, it's an absolute steal.
Bringing over Mirotic for the Mid-Level Exception (3 years/$16 million) last summer was huge. The promising Rookie of the Year candidate is a fan favorite in Chicago and throughout the rest of the league. Other guys like Gibson, Butler, Dunleavy, and Snell are all on cap friendly contracts or rookie deals as well.
There are three giant elephants in the room, however. The first, is the Bulls having to pay Jimmy Butler the max this summer. I won't go into much detail since I already wrote about this dilemma, but Jimmy's max has the possibility to shoot the Bulls over the tax, something GM Gar Forman and owner Jerry Reinsdorf haven't been willing to do in the past.
Here is a look at the Bulls' cap sheet for next year, if they were to keep Jimmy Butler on his relative max (Bulls contracts). Also, click HERE for salary cap notes.
The Bulls would see themselves roughly a million dollars over the tax and since they aren't a repeater, they would be able to stomach that tax bill just fine. But that is also their bill with just 12 guys on the roster. They would still have to fill out the roster with minimum contract guys, meaning players like Aaron Brooks and Mike Dunleavy, who have given them big minutes this year, probably won't be back. Finding a backup point guard to replace Brooks won't be hard because Thibs is a freaking magician with backup point guards (my odds for the spot next year: Jordan Crawford 50%, Shane Larkin 25%, Ish Smith 10%, other 15%), but replacing Dunleavy will be hard given the premium the league has put on shooting.
They could replace either of those spots in the draft, but this draft is really weak in both areas of point guard and shooting. Plus, the chances of a rookie coming in their first year and making an impact for a title contender are slim. Those chances gets even slimmer when you factor in the fact that Thibs NEVER plays rookies. Just ask Doug McDermott, Tony Snell, and Jimmy Butler.
With all this being said, Butler is a keeper and if they max him out, then they are stuck with a roster next season that is probably worse than the one they have this year. This brings us to the other two elephants in the room: Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah's contracts.
The Rose case isn't interesting. He is Chicago's poster child. He is to that city as LeBron is to Cleveland. They won't ever trade him. He won't ever leave. End of discussion.
Noah, on the other hand, is a lot more fascinating. He is making about $27 million the next two seasons, and will be an unrestricted free agent by the time the cap supposedly skyrockets in 2016. He will be 32 at that time, making his next contract situation tricky given his current status with the team. Last year, he was the go-to-guy. Now, with Rose, Pau, and Jimmy getting most of the touches, and Mirotic on the rise, Noah is looking like the fifth guy on the totem pole. He could be a very interesting trade candidate in the summer, when the Bulls realize that he is making a lot of money to be a guy who doesn't really fit anymore. I know Chicago loves him, but in today's NBA, you always have to think about all the different ways you can maximize your assets. They could get a decent return for him, and as we learned with the Rondo situation, you're going to get a way better return for a superstar before the last year of their deal than during it.
BOTTOM LINE
Chicago fans, being in the huge market they are in, tend to be very dramatic in how they react and support their team. It is by no means a bad thing. The Bulls wouldn't be in the third largest TV market if their fans weren't zealous in that regard. It shows how much they love and care about their team.
With all that being said, I'm here to bring everybody to the median and say that the Bulls are fine. With this roster, they've shown that they are a title contender, even if they have a few kinks and wrinkles to work out schematically and with the rotation. Thibs is a top five coach in the league, a man who revolutionized how defense is played in the NBA. With this team humming in the top ten on offense along with it, they will be scary come playoff time.
That doesn't mean that there still shouldn't be caution going forward. There has been a lot said about the feud going on between Thibodeau and the front office, to the point where it seems that the relationship is "beyond repair." No matter how much success Chicago has this season, we saw with Lionel Hollins in Memphis and Vinny Del Negro in Los Angeles that if the writing is on the wall, it doesn't matter how much success your team has. Heck, Hollins took the Grizzlies to the Western Conference Finals for Christ's sake and Memphis wouldn't even sign him to a new deal. If I were a betting man and had to put money on it today, I would say that Thibs will get traded, Doc Rivers style, this summer.
That coupled with the Butler dilemma, Derrick Rose's inconsistencies, and Noah's decline give Chicago fans every reason to be frightened for the future. Until then, enjoy the success your team is having this year. They have a legitimate chance to cut down the nets in June.
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