by Austin Peters
Last weekend gave us four extremely high level college basketball games. Kentucky was taken to the buzzer by Notre Dame, Wisconsin outlasted Arizona, Michigan State squeaked another one out in OT, and Duke pulled away from Gonzaga late. The madness hasn't stopped since the calendar flipped to March, and it doesn't look like April will be any different.
The storylines for the 2015 Final Four are endless. These coaches have a combined 26 Final Four appearances, six national championships, and two wins shy of 2500 wins altogether. Obviously, a lot of this is dominated by Coach K, who accounts for 12 Final Fours, four championships, and over 1000 wins by himself. But the other three are Hall-of-Famers (or soon to be) in their own right. Izzo has been to seven Final Fours, Calipari has been to four in the last five years, and Bo is going to his second straight Final Four in the middle of a six year run where the Badgers have finished no lower than fourth in the Big Ten.
Both games are rematches of contests that happened within recent memory. Last year's Final Four in Dallas brought heartbreak to Badger country, as the 8th seeded Kentucky spoiled Bo Ryan's first trip to the Final Four by a score of 74-73. After beating Arizona for the second straight year in the Elite Eight, Wisconsin is poised and ready to take down the team they've been wanting another chance to beat. As for Duke and MSU, the two teams met in this year's Champions Classic in Indianapolis, where Duke cruised to an 81-71 win. With the rematch happening in Indy yet again, the Spartans are probably hoping that changing the venue to Lucas Oil Stadium will help wipe their memories of the early season matchup with the Blue Devils.
Of course, the players are going to garner tons of attention this weekend as well. Wisconsin has Frank Kaminsky, the favorite for National Player of the Year, and Sam Dekker, whose late season surge has carried the Badgers the last two rounds. Duke brings in the best freshman in the country in Jahlil Okafor alongside other sensational freshmen Tyus Jones and Justise Winslow. Speaking of freshmen, Kentucky has diaper dandies of their own (as usual), with guys like Karl Towns, Trey Lyles, Devin Booker, and Tyler Ulis all getting big minutes for the Wildcats. Michigan State brings a completely different dynamic than any of the other teams. There aren't any household names that will catch your eye, but Izzo's got a squad full of four year veterans that bring toughness and maturity to Indianapolis.
Then there's history. A chance at the elusive undefeated season. Kentucky is trying to become the first team to go unbeaten since the 1975-76 Indiana Hoosiers, who went 32-0 en route to a national championship. Bob Knight's team has enjoyed nearly a 40 year run as the last team to accomplish this. Many have come close, with last year's Wichita State team, the 2012 Kentucky team, and 2008 Memphis all coming to mind. Calipari has his best chance with this team, and hopefully the third time's the charm.
The storylines alone are enough to get you juiced up for this incredible weekend. But what about the matchups? Let's take a look at how each team will lineup against each other in Indy...
1 Kentucky (38-0) vs 1 Wisconsin (35-3)
As I mentioned before, this is a rematch of last year's Final Four meeting between the two teams. Just like every year, Kentucky has a completely different team than the one last year that faced off against Wisconsin. The Harrisons, Dakari Johnson, and Marcus Lee are the only returning players from last year's game. Even then, Lee and Johnson only player 28 minutes combined in that game. Andrew and Aaron shot a combined 7-22 from the field and 1-3 from three. Fortunately for them, the one three that Aaron hit was the biggest one of the game. Willie Cauley-Stein, a key player for Kentucky, didn't play in last year's game because of an ankle injury.
Wisconsin has a lot of the same personnel, but the roles have changed significantly. While Dekker and Kaminsky are still the featured players, Bronson Koenig has assumed the starting point guard role in place of the injured Traevon Jackson, who only recently returned to action against North Carolina. Ben Brust was a key piece for the Badgers last year, with the senior sharp shooter leading the Badgers in scoring against the Wildcats in last year's game. Sophomore Nigel Hayes has filled in nicely for Bo Ryan's team this season. Nigel only played seven minutes against Kentucky last year, and is now an integral part in the team's success this season, averaging 12 points and six rebounds a game while shooting 50% from the floor and 38% from three.
Wisconsin has become known for their patented "swing" offense. It's an interchangeable offense where all five players exchange certain spots on the floor and are all expected to be able to do similar things. Even in practice, their bigs are doing the same ball handling and three point shooting drills as the wings and guards. Notice how all of them essentially move in between five spots on the floor through a series of back screens and down screens.
You can pick out the five spots on the floor, a classic four out/one in motion with four people spaced on the wings and elbows extended. We know that Wisconsin has historically been a team that can shoot the three well, and their big guys are no exception. Like mentioned above, Hayes shoots a nice 38% from deep and Kaminsky is a flaming 41.5% from deep, up from 38% last season.
Kentucky's defense was shredded in their game against Notre Dame, specifically in the high pick and roll game. 24 of the Irish's 67 possessions were pick and rolls, according to Syngery Sports. Notre Dame does a great job of spacing the floor around their Jerian Grant ball screens, meaning the defenders have to stay sucked up to the shooters. This leaves room for the screener, Zach Auguste, to roll to the rim and finish. It's a very sophisticated, NBA like motion that resulted in Auguste feasting with 20 points.
https://youtu.be/15rmLNrASTU
Notre Dame was able to exploit this. But as you see with Wisconsin's motion, it's completely different, almost never using ball screens. Wisconsin isn't the type of team that is going to run the things that Kentucky isn't good at defending, making it easier for the Wildcats to focus on individual matchups instead of scheme.
As far as those individual matchups go, Willie will almost certainly guard Frank. Frank has been able to have success all year against guys that are more traditional bigs that can't chase him out to the perimeter. Unfortunately, he can't use that to his advantage against Cauley-Stein. Willie's ability to guard, and shut down, any position 1-5 is a main reason why he is a consensus top five pick in this year's draft. Watch him chase Jerian Grant, Notre Dame's All-American point guard, all the way down the floor and contest the shot at the buzzer.
How many seven footers do you know that have that speed to keep up with a guard? He was ahead of him and beat him down the floor. INSANE. Willie is the type of player you build a defense around, and he is going to give the Wooden Award Finalist Kaminsky fits.
Where Kentucky's problems might arise defensively is the matchup they have with Dekker. You'll likely see Trey Lyles start on him, which will be a problem. Dekker's first step is quick, exploding past just about any wing or guard that has tried to check him in this tournament. When he wants to turn it on, as he does coming off this screen, he is impossible to stop when he gets a full head of steam.
https://youtu.be/eF89AhSv3iY
Also expect Wisconsin to attack Karl Towns a lot in this one. Towns is a beast offensively and is a great shot blocker, but he tends to get into foul trouble, averaging six fouls every 40 minutes. As anemic as it might be offensively, Kentucky's best lineup to defend the Badgers might have to be Ulis, the Harrisons, Lyles at four, and Willie. I've been wanting Cal to play Trey at four all season, and he rarely goes to it, but it might have to be a necessity on the defensive end this game.
On the other end, it's no secret that Kentucky loves to run the game through their posts. Karl-Anthony Towns has looked like a monster against any poor soul that tries to guard him one on one on the block. As good of a game as Auguste had for Notre Dame on the offensive end, Towns obliterated him on defense. Karl shoots a pretty nice 51.5% on all his post ups. Kentucky as a team shoots a solid 46.5% on every post up.
You might think that Kentucky's bigs will have trouble against Kaminsky when wanting to post up. Surprisingly, despite his size, Kaminsky hasn't been a very good one on one post defender, allowing his man to shoot 48.9% when posting him up. As a team, Wisconsin ranks in the bottom 100 in post up defense, letting teams shoot 47.6% in the post against them. Kaminsky does a poor job of keeping guys off the block, allowing them to get deep position inside. Kaminsky weighs 242 lbs., the same weight that Zach Auguste weighs in at.
Like I said before, Towns annihilated Auguste in the post all game. Towns is so good at going over both shoulders in the post, as you can see in the above clip with him going right shoulder to his weak hand.
One thing that Wisconsin doesn't do but might experiment with in this game is doubling the post. They've only done so 18 total possessions this year. While they haven't had any success at doing it, the sample size isn't big enough to really gauge whether or not they're capable of doing it. It clearly isn't a part of their scheme and we've seen against team with good bigs (Duke and Arizona) that Wisconsin is content at letting them go one on one in the post against Frank or Nigel. If that happens, I'm afraid that Towns and Johnson might have another field day in the paint.
7 Michigan State vs 1 Duke
As mentioned above, these two teams met in Indianapolis earlier this year, with Duke getting the best of Michigan State in that game, 81-71. Duke held the lead the whole game, with their largest spread being 14 late in the game. To think that this was a blow out would be sadly mistaken. The game consistently stayed within one to two possessions, with Michigan State making it more than a tough test for the Blue Devils.
It's no secret that Jahlil Okafor is Duke's go to player. He is currently the most talented back-to-the-basket scorer in the nation, with nimble feet and soft hands combined with his 270 lbs frame. He has an array of post moves and counter moves; up and unders, drop steps, hook shots, and his deadly spin move to the baseline that reminds you of Tim Duncan.
In the game against MSU, the Spartan bigs had a hard time moving his big body off the block. Okafor converted 50% of his post ups, and shot 60% on his shot attempts in the post. If the MSU bigs aren't able to contain him, they will almost certainly have to double to avoid getting destroyed by Jahlil. The problem with doubling, however, is that Okafor is a terrific passer out of the post and Duke has done a great job of surrounding him with shooters. In a way, its similar to Notre Dame, where they space shooters around their ball screens. Instead, Duke spaces their shooters around Okafor post ups. Notice here how Jahlil gets the ball in the post, is doubled, and then is able to find a cutting Winslow, whose lane to the hoop is made wide open by the spacing the Blue Devils give him.
https://youtu.be/ouJQ29HFVjw
Winslow is another tough cover for MSU, but at least they have the capable wing bodies to throw at him. Even then, Winslow still torched Michigan State for 15 points. Justise has evolved into another playmaker alongside Cook and Jones; cutting, slashing, and being able to get a bucket whenever his team needs one.
https://youtu.be/U3CwdxDFVsg
As far as MSU's offense goes, they do a lot of what Golden State does with Steph and Klay. They will run an initial down screen for one of their playmakers, Travis Trice and Denzel Valentine, and then let them make a play. That catch off the down screen serves as a sort of side pick and roll with a head start. The defense is constantly a step behind during this type of action.
Michigan State has been able to get into the Final Four because of the matchup problems their team creates. They don't ever play two traditional bigs and their only post up guy, Branden Dawson, is a 6'6" undersized power forward who can't shoot. They don't ever post up Costello or Schilling, their rim running/ball screening guys. The unfortunate thing for them is Duke is similar to them by the fact that they play essentially four perimeter guys and then Okafor in the middle. Michigan State will have to take advantage of the times that Duke puts in Marshall Plumlee and Amile Jefferson into the game in order to take advantage of the matchups.
So Whose Cutting Down the Nets?
As I've said countless times already, this is best Final Four lineup I've ever seen. All the storylines and the buzz are enough to get a basketball fan excited. The games will be close. I wouldn't expect any blowouts. We already know MSU and Duke had a close battle in November, and Kentucky/Wisconsin is shaping up to be an instant classic like last year's showdown.
The matchups are extremely interesting. Kentucky has looked beatable several times this season, and Wisconsin is going to be the best team that they've faced all year. Duke has just as much talent on their roster as anyone, but Michigan State has used they're grit and timely shooting to become this year's "cinderella."
All that being said, it is really hard for me to pick against a team that hasn't lost a game this season. Kentucky isn't going to be attacked by any of the teams in the Final Four the way that Notre Dame was able to exploit them. Duke runs it through their post, Wisconsin has the "swing," and MSU gets looks through their transition offense. Kentucky's ability to throw Willie Cauley-Stein on to just about any player on the floor is a huge reason why it is going to be tough for any team to score against the number one ranked defense in the country. Along with that, Towns is unstoppable, and there isn't any big man left in the tournament that has a chance at containing him.
There hasn't been a team go undefeated in nearly 40 years. This type of accomplishment doesn't come around ever. Wouldn't it be cool to tell our kids and our grandkids that we were able to witness one of the best teams in college basketball history?
That's the type of title that Kentucky is chasing. Not just banner number nine.
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