Draft Battles: Who should go #1?

The majority of arguments in the NBA Draft revolve around comparing players to one another.  Which battles are dominating this year's draft class? Today we start the heaviest debate: Who should go #1?

by Austin Peters


When it comes the draft, most front offices use a tiered system of the prospects. ESPN's Chad Ford unveils each year his draft tiers after asking executives from just about every team in the league.  In the end, teams have their own big board ranking the players from one through the end of the draft.  In addition to that, they also have a system like Ford's; a number of tiers based on how much they like a prospect or how much they feel that prospect can contribute at the next level.

Within these tiers, there are going to be overlap of player positions. Each tier will include a number of players from each position and then will have to compare Player A to Player B to determine who is better.  I would personally venture to guess that front offices spend a good chunk of their time doing player to player comparisons.

Each year, there are arguments over who is better than who.  These "Draft Battles" normally dominate the conversation of fans and pundits everywhere.  Last year, it was Andrew Wiggins v. Jabari Parker.  Dante Exum v. Marcus Smart for the best point guard in the draft was also discussed heavily.  Other notable ones in recent memory were Kyrie v. Derrick Williams in 2011, Derrick Rose v. Michael Beasley in 2008, and the infamous Kevin Durant v. Greg Oden in 2007.  As you can see, in most cases, who the teams chooses in these comparisons can make or break their franchise, for good or for worse.

With all that being said, I've picked out a few of the biggest "Draft Battles" in this year's draft.  We will go through each of these battles over the next couple weeks, starting today with the argument over who should be the number one pick. One note before we start: several of these guys have no officially declared for the draft yet, but I am assuming who is leaving based on the general consensus and feel that I've seen about the specific players.

Let's go ahead and start at the top.....

Battle for the Number One Pick: Karl Towns vs. Jahlil Okafor

At the beginning of the season, this was a no brainer. Jahlil had separated himself from just about everybody else in the draft due to his dominance as a low post scorer.  People became enamored over him because of size, his soft hands, his nimble feet, and his incredible touch around the rim.  His bullying back to the basket game is a rarity in today's NBA, making him a very interesting prospect.

Karl Towns didn't pick up steam until late in the season and in the NCAA tournament.  With how deep Kentucky is, Towns wasn't getting enough minutes to put up the type of stats that would rival Okafor's production.  Once Kentucky started getting on national TV more and the American public got to see more of Karl, they fell in love with his offensive versatility and menacing shot blocking that anchored one of the best defenses of all time.

This is without a doubt the biggest storyline of the draft; who would you rather take with the number one pick?

There is so much that goes into picking players that people don't understand.  Which team is picking? What type of schemes do they run on both ends of the floor? How would Player X fit in with their schemes? What positions do they need to fill?

I've always held the position that you don't draft based on needs. You always draft the best player available and then figure the rest out afterwards.  The draft is so unknown because you are drafting players who haven't played one single game in the NBA.  If you draft based on need, you run the risk of grabbing a prospect who might not be able to fill that need like you intended or if it is a down year for that type of need (example: point guard), then you're filling it with someone who won't do an adequate job, thus not fixing your problem but more than likely making it worse.  I know that is a bunch of vomit I just spat out, but understand this: drafting who you think is the best player available always has the best opportunity of reaping the biggest rewards.

Who should be selected number one is essentially going to come down to who is better: Okafor or Towns?

Both of these have a lot of similarities.  Each of their college teams loved to throw the ball in to them and run their offense through their post ups.  Both guys rank in the top 55 in the country at post up field goal percentage for players who posted up at least 100 times this season (Jahlil is 24th at 55.8%, Karl is 54th at 51.4%), according to synergy sports.

Most people would believe that Jahlil is better at posting up than Karl just by sheer volume and weight.  Jahlil is a huge kid at 270 lbs, allowing him to get deep position on just about every college player.  His favorite move, however, is catching it on the right block then spinning baseline.



There is a lot to like about this guy, but how well will this translate to the next level, where every player you're guarded by is just as big and strong as you are?  It's not nearly as hard to back down guys in college as it is in the NBA.  Teams will also do a good job scouting and taking away the tendencies of a player, such as Jahlil's spin move.  Opposing teams are going to stretch Jahlil and make him do things he isn't comfortable doing.  One of those things that I can't stand that Jahlil does is use his right hand over his shoulder. He never uses his left hand. Against even mediocre defenders, that isn't going to be able to work.



If Okafor goes up with the left hand here, he doesn't get the ball taken away because it is protected.  A couple possessions before this, he was able to get away with going right hand over his right shoulder, which has more to say about Kaminsky's post defense.

The thing that impresses me the most about Towns is his ability to not only have his way in the post like Okafor, but he has equal ability to use both hands over both shoulders.





I hate to keep beating a dead horse, but posting up in the NBA is a lot more difficult than in college.  The fact that Towns can use both hands gives him a leg up on Okafor because it gives him more versatility and unpredictability.  Opposing defenders can't crowd his strong shoulder; they have to play him straight up and get punished.

The other offensive advantage I give to Towns is definitely the free throw shooting.  We are in the middle of a "hack-a-player" age where teams are content late in games hacking and fouling players intentionally in order to put a poor free throw shooter on the line.  Even during games, teams will foul guys on purpose when they catch the ball in the post in order to force them onto the line.  Jahlil is a 51% free throw shooter and you might remember at the end of the national championship, when Jahlil sat for the last couple minutes of the game so that he wouldn't be put on the line.  Karl Towns shoots 81.3% from the line, a mark that's not only incredible for most centers but is also a stellar clip for any position.  This not only allows you to leave your best interior player on the floor at the end of the game, but this shows that Karl might have potential to be a pick and pop threat.

When you talk about Okafor's weakness, the obvious one that people bring up is his defense.  He has slow feet on pick and rolls and not enough athleticism to block shots.  He is someone that opposing offenses deliberately attack in order to expose him and get a bucket.



Koenig had no problem revving up and blowing right by Jahlil on that pick and roll.  He immediately saw Jahlil and went straight to the bucket.  Jahlil was so indecisive on what to do and made the miserable choice of just abandoning the ball handler. Tyus Jones even stopped chasing Koenig because he was expecting Jahlil to be there.

Towns, on the other hand, is already an elite rim protector.  He is averaging nearly 4.4 blocks per 40 minutes, a mark that ranks in the top 20 in the nation.  Poor Nate Britt didn't stand a chance....



Towns got exposed a little bit in the Notre Dame. Just like Okafor, he doesn't have the fastest feet in the world and can't hedge out to stop the ball.  As I wrote about in my Final Four preview, this allowed Zach Auguste to just feast in Notre Dame's high spread pick and roll game because Towns and Dakari Johnson didn't have the ability to contain the pick and roll with Auguste.



Towns also has a problem fouling, averaging 5.5 per 40 minutes.  Several games he has had to sit a ton due to foul trouble.  He is an elite shot blocker, but tends to jump to much, which obviously leaves him susceptible to pump fakes.

The thing with Towns is he has all the capabilities to be an elite NBA defender.  His physical tools show that he has promise in that regard.  My general rule of thumb with players' defense in the NBA is it usually takes until their second contract for young guys to really grasp defensive concepts and rotations.  Towns will comes into the NBA as an already great shot blocker and will be able to figure out the rest in time. Okafor I worry about because he doesn't have the physical capability that Towns has. He has nice footwork in the post, but he is still slow moving on defense.  He is really going to have to work on his angles and be diligent about sitting in a stance more often.

If I had to choose which one I would take, I would go with Towns.  His ceiling on both ends of the floor is higher than Okafor's.  He can already do things that Okafor does best while also having the room to grow with his jump shot and post moves going over both shoulders. Defensively, there is no comparison. Towns is light year's ahead of Jahlil.  In today's NBA, where most teams don't like to dump the ball into the post, it seems as though Jahlil is going to be an oddity and have a hard time fitting in.  I'm not saying he isn't going to good. He may still be an All-Star. I believe that Towns is the type of guy you build a team around and would regret not taking in the future.