by Austin Peters
Every year, there are groups of players that are compared and discussed in a manner of who is better than the other. Is Player X better? Does Player Y have more upside and long term potential than Player X? These draft battles dominate the conversations leading up to the main event in June.
Last week, I broke down the battle for the number one pick and why I would take Karl Towns over Jahlil Okafor. This week in the "Draft Battles" series, we are going to take a look at the deepest position in the NBA and who the two best prospects are: Emmanuel Mudiay and D'Angelo Russell.
Point Guard Battle: Emmanuel Mudiay vs. D'Angelo Russell
Both of these players can probably be best described as combo guards. In the modern NBA, lots of teams play with small ball lineups and play two point guards at the same time. Both Mudiay and Russell have functioned as point guards and wings, making them perfect for the new positionless league that has been trending the last few years. While they both play well at both positions, they're backgrounds and skillsets couldn't be more opposite.
Rafael Uehara broke down Mudiay's game earlier this week on Upside and Motor, so I won't go into too much detail on his scouting report. Mudiay committed to play college basketball at SMU until he decided to forgo his college career for a $1.2 million contract with the Chinese club Guangdong. Obviously, unless you have access to film websites like Synergy, then there really isn't any way to watch Mudiay's games other than some youtube mixtapes. The only real feel that people here can probably get for his game is from the high school All-Star games he played in last year. This is probably more of a good thing because if he was in the states, then everybody would have been able to analyze and dissect every breath he takes.
Mudiay has lots of strengths that should translate to the league. The NBA is really pick and roll heavy, and Mudiay has shown to have great instincts and feel. He has the size and speed to get into the lane after probing the defense in a ball screen. That size allows him to have good court vision to see over the defense and find open shooters.
Rejecting a screen then finding an open shooter after the defense rotates is a very advanced instinct for a then-18-year-old Mudiay to have. He does it again a couple possessions later, only this time Trey Lyles wasn't expecting the pass.
His 1.82 assist/turnover ratio is a slight concern, considering it would be in the bottom ten for point guards in the NBA this year. But you can see the potential for some great stuff here, especially since he has NBA size, speed, and athleticism already. It took John Wall three to four years to really learn how to control his speed and hone his pick and roll skills. Now in year five, Wall is a mastermind in the half court. I can definitely envision Mudiay becoming something like that eventually.
Russell's story is different than Mudiay's. Russell was a highly touted recruit, just like Mudiay, but nobody thought that he would turn into this one and done star in his only year at Ohio State. Most draft experts thought that Russell would eventually be a two or three year player at OSU. Russell went from underdog to top five pick in a matter of months.
Russell's skillset is the polar opposite of Mudiay's. Mudiay loves to play fast whereas Russell tends to slow down and scan the floor for his options. Russell is an absolute nightmare in ball screens, rating in the top 20 in pick and roll ball handler efficiency according to Synergy (for players who ran at least 100 ball screens). He is kind of like James Harden in several ways; he takes his time to wait and see how the defense is going to bend, keeping the opponent afraid of what might happen next. Poor Vic Law got caught being on his heels and D'Angelo just murdered him in this clip.
Making the right read is so crucial in the NBA. Russell saw Law cheating towards the screen to fight over it and D'Angelo quickly crossed back over to reject the screen. He is a terrific shooter and shot a scorching 41.1% from deep this season. Not only is he a threat to shoot off the bounce, but his passing and court vision is absurd. Again, like Harden, Russell threw some of the most ridiculous passes this season.
The amount of spin on that ball shouldn't even be humanly possible. The thing is, they ran that exact same play against Northwestern and Russell made a similar ridiculous bounce pass. That means Thad Matta ran that play not only knowing they would get a decent look but also that D'Angelo would find some inhuman way to get the ball to the guy coming off the screen.
Each guy looks primed to make an impact in the league based on their offensive skill sets. Both of their potentials to make reads and affect the game in ball screens (albeit in completely different ways) will make them effective lead ball handlers at the next level.
That doesn't mean that they don't have their weaknesses. Mudiay's main weakness is more noticeable than Russell's, which is his broken jump shot. Notice here on this wide open three how his legs kick really funky and the hitch he has in his release.
We have seen with guys like Rondo that if you can't shoot, teams will go way under on screens and negate any sort of action that you're trying to do. Not only that, but Mudiay shot a Rondo like 57.4% from the free throw line overseas, not an encouraging sign for someone with a broken jump shot. Couple that with the underwhelming assist/turnover ratio mentioned earlier, and Mudiay still has a lot of work to do.
Russell's defense is pretty close to being a dumpster fire. I've already made a couple comparisons to James Harden's game for D'Angelo, and before Harden became a disrupter on D this year, he was a black hole in 13-14. Russell has a lot of the same defensive tendencies of "last season James Harden" on defense as well. The thing that might annoy me the most is that he just flat out gives up on ball screens. Watch as he just stops on this high pick and roll and lets Jequan Lewis blow by his teammate, Jae'Sean Tate.
Another thing that Russell tends to do on defense is fall asleep off the ball. Countless times, like the picture below, he will just chill way to far in the lane off of shooters.
It's not like Russell is incapable of being a good defender. If you really think about it, all NBA players have the potential to be competent defenders. It takes effort physically (which every player should have) but also just as equally important, you have to understand rotations and your team's scheme. Russell's refusal to fight over ball screens and his tendency to drift off of shooters is kind of a lack of both. If James Harden can make an improvement, however, then anyone can.
Kyle Neubek wrote a great piece on Upside and Motor this morning about the skill vs. athleticism argument, using Mudiay vs. Russell as the prime example of this. He couldn't have hit the nail harder on the head. Mudiay is really raw and his successes currently come based on his athleticism and speed. Russell is successful due to his shooting ability and his wicked passing skills. Both players impact the game in complete opposite ways.
Ultimately, it is going to be based on team fit as to who gets drafted higher. Both guys have their strengths but also their deficiencies as well. It has been funny to me that the Sixers have been really secretive the past couple years about their draft plans but this year, it isn't a secret to anybody that they want Mudiay. The Sixers play at a really fast pace with a lot of spread pick and rolls with Nerlens Noel, and Mudiay seems to be the ideal fit for that. Other teams such as New York and Los Angeles would be better fits for Russell because he can go do his own thing and be the ball dominant guard that he wants to be there.
Both guys have high ceilings and could have long careers in the league with lots of success. If fit wasn't an issue (even though it really is probably the top determining factor in the draft), I would lean towards taking Russell over Mudiay. It is painfully hard to teach someone how to shoot. Everyone wants to talk about the Kawhi Leonards and Jason Kidds when it comes to shooting mechanic redemption projects, but the fact is for every Kawhi there are seven Michael Kidd-Gilchrists and Derrick Roses; guys who seem to have spent every offseason tweaking and retooling their jumpers but to no avail. In today's NBA, if you can't shoot, you are really lowering your team's offensive ceiling due to the other team's abilities to sag off and takeaway other actions. Russell can at the very least become an average defender or someone who can be hidden on that end by four other good defenders around him. Nevertheless, both guys will most likely be picked in the top seven, making them potential All-Stars and building blocks of a franchise.
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