by Austin Peters
I've talked several times on here about how this offseason was not only crazy for player movement, but how it has also set up the next couple summers. With cap space at a premium in today's NBA, there is nearly half the league with significant cap space each summer. In that same post, I named off several teams that will have room next summer. If you check the contracts that have been signed this summer, however, you'll notice a large amount of them were signed for two years in length. This is for two main reasons:
1. The TV deal that the NBA will re-sign with Turner and Disney is going to be humongous. This will make the cap rocket even higher than the significant jump we saw last season. The salary cap is determined by a formula that is related to BRI (Basketball Related Income). With a new TV deal in place, the income will go through the roof and bring the salary cap with it. This change will work in either the summer of 2016 or 2017.
2. There is this dude named Kevin Durant who will be a free agent.
There are plenty of suitors for Durant. Lots of teams created cap space with plans to make a run at him the summer he becomes a free agent. With LeBron James showing a willingness to leave and return home this summer, there are already murmurs about the Durant free agency in the summer of 2016. While there might be many teams that believe they have a shot, there are only four that seem like the frontrunners. Over the next five weeks, the Friday Column will be consisting of the teams on that list and then the final one will culminate in odds and predictions on where Durant will decide to play in 2016. First up this week: the hometown Washington Wizards.
The Basketball Side
The Wizards were seen as a laughing stock in the league no more than two seasons ago. They had done poorly in the draft and Randy Whitman was seen by many as a possible candidate to be the first coach fired. They had set themselves up horribly and it didn't seem like they were going to be able to pull themselves out of the cellar. After drafting John Wall, Bradley Beal, and trading for Marcin Gortat, the Wizards had finally put together something to build around. Trevor Ariza enjoyed a career year last season (in a contract year no less) which got him a big contract from Houston in free agency this summer. Add in a healthy Nené, and the Wizards had one of the best starting fives in basketball.
Washington struggled in the half court sometimes. That could be due to spacing between Nené and Gortat, both guys who aren't known for stepping out and shooting jumpers. Wall also isn't that good of a jump shooter either, making it harder to penetrate and open up driving lanes for shooters like Beal and Ariza. It makes it easier for the defense to rotate because they can give him space and don't have to scramble off the ball to help on pick and rolls. Notice how Jonas Valenciunas just drops back and doesn't have to put pressure on Wall. The other defenders can stay home in passing lanes instead of helping, forcing Wall into trouble.
This team is really fun in transition, however. With athletic guys like Ariza and Beal filling in on the wings and chucking threes, it makes for a delightful team to watch. Wall is terrific on the break as well, a blur that is just a joy when he gets into fifth gear. He has improved his decision making each year with a career high assist/turnover ratio this last season. In transition, he is able to use his speed and driving ability to draw defenders easier and find open shooters like Beal.
The Wizards finished in the top ten in transition points per game, showing that they at least tried to get out and utilize the skill sets of their players. Overall, however, Washington struggled to score, finishing in the bottom half of the league in offensive rating. Other than fast break points, they were pretty darn mediocre at just about every offensive category. Obviously, Kevin Durant might be able to help that.
Losing Trevor Booker this summer might not seem like a big loss, but the Wizards had a pretty significantly better offensive rating when he was on the court versus off. They were a way better offensive rebounding team when Booker was on the floor, so the difference might come from that. He doesn't shoot well from the perimeter and doesn't really score that much at all, but his hustle and toughness might be something the Wizards miss. Adding DeJuan Blair and Kris Humphries will help the Booker departure. Both were better rebounders than Booker last year and in the case of Blair, the Wizards have a massive upgrade on offense in that back up big spot.
The big blow is going to be losing Ariza. The Wizards were worse by decent margins both on offense and defense when Ariza wasn't on the floor. He has made himself into a very respectable 3 and D player. He was one of the few shooters on the Wizards team last year and really was a key part of that defense. I love me some Paul Pierce, but his age caught up to him last year. He still finds creative ways to use his body and get to his sweet spot at the elbow, but isn't near the athlete he used to be or what Ariza was last year. He isn't going to fit as well in their transition attack because of this.
Defensively, the Wizards should still be just fine. They were top ten in just about every defensive category you can think of last year. It helps when you have great two way players on the perimeter like Wall, Beal, and Ariza. Maybe the most important part of their defense, however, was Nené. When he was healthy and on the court, the Wizards were close to having a defensive rating that would be in the top ten in the league. When he wasn't, that rating dropped a whopping 5.2*. We saw in the first round against the Bulls how effective Nené was bothering Joakim Noah. Noah had a hard time with Nené's size, making it hard to rebound and defend him.
The big question mark defensively will be Pierce. The Nets played him a lot at the four last season so it is hard to imagine that he will be able to pick up right where Ariza left off on the wing. If Otto Porter shows that he can be a decent rotation guy and Martell Webster comes back from injury in his old form, then they should be able to mask Pierce and play those guys heavy minutes. This would also create some potential small ball lineups with Porter/Webster at three, Pierce at four, and Nené/Gortat at five. If Porter doesn't deliver and Webster can't come back 100% (very likely outcome), this could be a problem spot in their defense. Don't get me wrong, I am a Pierce supporter all the way to my core, and even at this age he can be effective if his skills are used the right way. I just don't know if he will be a great fit for this Wizards team.
The Front Office
The future for the Wizards is very bright. They were a playoff team last year for the first time in a while and they upset a tough Bulls team that everybody thought would win. The Wiz also looked poised to upset the crumbling Pacers, but ended up faltering in six. Despite all of the shortcomings by Ernie Grunfeld (overpaying guys, draft issues, etc.), the Wizards are set up to be in a nice spot the next two offseasons.
Just like I did for the last profile, I put together spreadsheets for all of the contract situations I went through. The first one is the link to the contracts they will have next season (HERE). Here are the things that need to be noted from the contracts...
1. Glen Rice Jr.'s 14-15 salary is not guaranteed. Martell Webster, Kris Humphries, and DeJuan Blair's salaries aren't guaranteed in 16-17.
2. All of the numbers in green represent the player's cap hold when he becomes a free agent. Cap holds are designed as place holders for your team's free agent salary and factor into the cap figures. For example, Nené's cap hold will be factored into team salary in two summers when they will try and sign Durant. Those cap holds stay there until that player has signed their new contract or the team renounces their cap holds.
3. Cap holds are different for RFA. The cap holds for RFA are their qualifying offers. The list of player qualifying offers are as follows:
2015
- Glen Rice Jr.: $1,147,276
2016
- Bradley Beal: $7,471,412
2017
- Otto Porter: $7,732,904**
4. Several players on this roster have their Bird Rights owned by the Wizards. A player has Bird Rights when they have been with a team for three or more years and they allow a team to keep their players while still going over the salary cap. If a player's cap hold is renounced as mentioned above, the team loses their Bird Rights and have to sign them to a contract using their cap space.
5. The total salaries at the bottom of each year aren't including the cap holds for free agents yet.
6. The salary cap and luxury tax line for the 14-15 season is already set, so the calculations I made for that year are accurate.
7. Like I said in the last profile, I had to do research to come up with numbers for the cap and tax in seasons following 14-15. Here is what I found...
- The general consensus for 15-16 is that the salary cap will be around $66,500,000 and the luxury tax line around $81,000,000.
- After 15-16, we are projecting the new TV deal to kick in 2017. That puts the cap at $70,806,035 and the tax at $86,253,708 for the 16-17 season. After the new TV deal is put in place, the 17-18 figures will be $88,254,635 for the cap and $106,455,941 for the tax.***
There are a couple decisions the Wizards will have to make for next summer, but nothing to strenuous. Here is what their salary chart will look like for next season (HERE).
We renounced the cap holds for Kevin Seraphin and Andre Miller. Miller will be 39 after next season and was contemplating retirement this summer. It is likely that this year we will see the last of Professor Miller. If he still wants to play, I doubt that Washington brings him back. As for Seraphin, he never gets a lot of playing time nor is he really that good anyway.
We put in projected new minimum contracts for Drew Gooden and Glen Rice Jr. as well. Rice Jr.'s deal is for two years at the minimum with the second year non guaranteed, while Gooden's is just one year. Both will make the minimum this season and barely got any time last year so it is really hard to see them commanding any more money than the minimum. It is also hard to see them leaving to go elsewhere because of the success of the team, and the roles that they both have are just fine for them.
The 2015 and 2016 1st round picks have cap holds for a set amount their first year. Any subsequent year is 120% of the set amount for that year because nearly all rookies sign for 120% of the rookie scale (Jusuf Nurkic from the Nuggets was the only first round pick not to sign for that amount this year). 3rd and 4th seasons after the first two have team options. We used pick 18 because that is where the Wizards' pick fell last year and they will essentially have the same roster this season and next. The 2015 pick we already went ahead and put in the expected rookie salary instead of just the cap hold. Second round picks don't have cap holds but usually sign for the minimum with 2nd and 3rd year of those contracts normally being non guaranteed. Those estimates are all included in that sheet as well. The only difference with 2017 is that we changed the draft position to a lower position because, well, if you have Kevin Durant then you should definitely finish better in the regular season. Same deal with the second round pick.
The next summer is the one that gets interesting. The contract decisions we decided for 16-17 are found HERE.
Nené's cap hold is humongous. They absolutely have to renounce that cap hold, especially for his production. This is a no brainer.
Webster, Humphries, and Blair all have non guaranteed contracts and they will definitely have to waive them in order to get underneath the cap. Webster, seeing as he shares an agent with John Wall, will more than likely get their Room Exception, the only exception a team receives if they go underneath the cap. I would also expect them to take care of Temple and Gooden as well in the form of multi-year minimum contracts. Depending on how much cap they have left after signing Durant, they might be able to bring back Blair with what little space they'll have. Unfortunately, Paul is going to retire. It's just gonna happen.
Assuming that Durant receives the max, the final contract sheet, including Durant, will be like this one (HERE).
It is SCARY how easy it seems for them to acquire Kevin Durant.
Durant's max contract is 30% of the salary cap because he will have 9 years of experience by the time he signs his new deal. Since he is signing with a new team, he is only eligible for 4.5% raises. Blair's new contract is the minimum amount he can be offered; 105% of his previous contract. Since they waived the last year of his deal, he can only get 4.5% raises. We also already mentioned how Webster will get the Room Exception because he shares agents with Wall. He is only eligible for up to 4.5% raises. Temple and Gooden's new deals are for the minimum.
Bradley Beal's estimated new deal is the max for guys coming off their rookie contracts. You might disagree that Beal is a max player, but if Klay Thompson is going to get one, and Chandler Parsons and Gordon Hayward both got one, then Brad should definitely receive a max extension. Max contracts coming off rookie scale are 25% of the cap with 7.5% raises. They can sign him and go over the cap because of the Bird Rights you obtain from rookies.
The signings must happen in this order for everything to work out:
1. Renounce all of the free agents.
2. Sign Durant to his max contract.
3. Sign Blair to his contract.
4. Sign Beal to his max contract.
5. Sign Webster to the Room Exception.
6. Sign Temple and Gooden to minimum deals.
You also see in the final spreadsheet that the Wizards would have a little bit of a tax payment. If you have the opportunity to get Kevin Durant, wouldn't you go over the tax? Everybody nowadays cringes when they hear the word "luxury tax." But if you're the Wizards, and you have a chance to put together an insane offensive juggernaut, you pay every penny of the tax to put this team on the court. If it really is that big of a problem, they can always waive one of their second round picks or their minimum guys.
The next summer in 2017 will also be interesting. They will have 16 guys under contract and Otto Porter will be up for an extension. He has the potential to get to a point where somebody would throw a bunch of money at him in free agency, a situation where Washington would have to let him walk. But they are comfortably under the tax for that season and if Porter proves to be a key cog in the rotation, then they might match an offer.
The big loss here is obviously Nené. It especially hurts when you factor in that Marcin Gortat will be 32 in that summer. Nené was a pivotal part of this Wizards team, and they were clearly better when he was on the floor as opposed to him being off of it. He is a shell of his former self, but he still had an above average PER. Bringing back Blair or using their draft picks on bigs (should be plenty in the next couple drafts) would be wise and would help ease the blow of having to let Nené go.
This team is lurking. They've hired Durant's ex-high school coach and Durant is reportedly going to sign a new shoe deal with DC based Under Armour. It is clearly something that is way to easy to obtain for them and will instantly make them a title contender. Wall, Beal, Durant, and Gortat would be very good with other role guys such as Blair, Porter, and whoever they draft. Gortat's health and how he ages definitely has a huge factor to play in this whole scenario. They have to hope that as he gets older, he can at least produce somewhat close to what he did last season.
You better believe after LeBron chose to go back home this summer, Durant will think long and hard about doing the same.
* Advanced Stats via BasketballReference.com
** All contract numbers via BasketballInsiders.com
*** Calculations done using Larry Coon's CBA FAQ and numbers derived from Duneblogger
No comments:
Post a Comment