Team Profile: Portland Trailblazers

With the rest of the Western Conference making moves, the Portland Trailblazers are eerily quiet. What's going on in Portland?

by Austin Peters



The Portland Trailblazers have intrigued me as of recently. Just about every team in the West has had some sort of news headline this summer and the team that nobody has said a word about is the Trailblazers. Since everybody else has seemed to shake up at least a little bit of their roster, some people might think Portland standing pat is bad thing. 

I'm sure the Trailblazers, however, would argue otherwise. They were one of the most fun teams to watch last year, playing at a super fast pace and lighting up the scoreboard.

The Basketball Side

Where Portland succeeded at the most last season was the mid-range shot. In a league that is becoming more analytics based, Portland's coaching staff found a niche. They decided that the mid range shot was going to be their bread and butter because very few teams utilize that shot. They shot 42.7% on such shots, ranking 5th in the league. They also shot 37.2% from three as a team, a clip that ranked in the top 10. They had a team littered with shooters; guys like Lillard (52.6% from mid range and 39.4% from 3), Matthews (38.4% and 39.3%), Batum (45.7% and 36.1%), Aldridge (43.4%), Williams (39.8% and 36.9%), and Wright (42.1% and 34.2%) all burned you from midrange and deep.* Terry Stotts has mastered the new age of basketball; space the floor and make sure everyone on the court can knock down shots.

A lot of Lillard's success last year came because of his improved Pick and Roll game. He is an absolute nightmare when he is paired in a PnR with someone like Aldridge. Lillard became a terror because of his ability to knock down threes if you go under the screen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CurtG9zCNGs

He is also one of the best guys in the league at splitting the double team.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3S0biG57xAI

What helps his success is when he has a guy like Aldridge that sets screens because of Aldridge's ability to knock down those mid range jumpers. You can't leave him unattended off the screen because of his shooting ability.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhplvWKHBdk

This made it near impossible to guard these guys. Opponents are forced to bring in a third defender because you can't leave Aldridge or Lillard. As noted before, however, this is another deadly option because of all the spot up shooters that Portland has. This action between Lillard and Aldridge contributed to a lot of their success. They finished 4th in points per game, 9th in assists, 4th in turnovers, and were the best rebounding team in the league.

The bad side of all of this is the defensive end. They were in the bottom ten in the league when it came to opponent's ppg (22nd). It was clear that they were counting on outscoring their opponents night in and night out to get wins. While Batum might be their only solid on ball defender, they have guys on their team that have become liabilities. Lillard hurts them on defense, getting absolutely abused on that end. He gets lost behind screens and loses his man off the ball constantly. His head is always spinning between the ball and his man. On the last play, you'll also see him get taken one on one by John Salmons (hint: that's not very good).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b61HHfJmh84

Matthews is usually a bad defender as well, although he did bully James Harden a bit in the playoffs. Williams was awful for them and when they played Williams and Lillard together (something they did a lot), they were an absolute train wreck on the perimeter. Lopez is a very good rebounder, one of the best in league when it comes to rebounding in traffic and securing the ball, but he got abused on defense by bigger guys (more specifically Dwight Howard). Neither Lopez or Aldridge are going to protect the rim when guys like Lillard, Williams, and Matthews are getting beat. Portland gave up the 4th most points in the paint of any team in the league, making rim protection somewhat of a priority for them.

The Front Office

It has been a quiet offseason for Rip City. They let Mo walk and replaced him with Steve Blake for the Bi Annual Exception. They gave Chris Kaman a two year, $10 million deal that only has $1 million guaranteed in year two. They didn't have any draft picks in a loaded draft and will essentially have the same exact team they had last year.

I've mentioned a couple times before on here that the cheapest way to build a contender is by getting guys on their rookie contracts. The Blazers have been one of the teams that have mastered that. They have Lillard, Robinson, Leonard, Freeland, McCollum, Claver, Barton, and Crabbe all currently still on rookie deals. That has given them cap space to extend guys like Batum and Aldridge. The only downside to this, however, is that there comes a point in time where all of these guys will be restricted free agents. We have seen especially with this summer that RFA is a tricky business.

Portland will have several guys coming off their books next summer in 2015. The three most notable names are Aldridge, Matthews, and Lopez. Other guys like Freeland, Wright, Claver, and Barton will also be free agents. With seven (and possibly more) guys potentially being free agents, the Blazers will have to be aggressive next summer in adding guys to their roster.

I have put together several spreadsheets of contract information. The first one (HERE) lists all the contracts as they currently stand as well as listing what type of options they have and what the team salary figure looks like. Several things have to be noted and addressed before we move on:

1. Chris Kaman's 15-16 salary is only $1 million guaranteed. Will Barton's 14-15 salary is fully non guaranteed as well as Allen Crabbe's 15-16 salary.
2. All of the numbers in green represent the player's cap hold when he becomes a free agent. Cap holds are designed as place holders for your team's free agent salary and factor into the cap figures. For example, LaMarcus Aldridge's cap hold will be factored into team salary next summer when they are trying to sign free agents. Those cap holds stay there until that player has signed their new contract or the team renounces their cap holds.
3. Cap Holds are different for RFA. The cap holds for RFA are their qualifying offers. The list of player qualifying offers are as follows:
2015
- Victor Claver: $1,712,500
- Joel Freeland: $3,766,890
- Will Barton: $1,181,348
2016
- Allen Crabbe: $1,215,696
- Meyers Leonard: $4,210,880
- Damian Lillard: $5,651,207
- Thomas Robinson: $6,179,799
2017
- CJ McCollum: $4,385,067**
4. The Blazers will have Aldridge, Batum, Matthews, and Lopez's Bird Rights. A player has Bird Rights when they have been with a team for three or more years and they allow a team to keep their players while still going over the salary cap. If a player's cap hold is renounced as mentioned above, the team loses their Bird Rights and have to sign them to a contract using their cap space.
5. The total salaries at the bottom of each year aren't including the cap holds for free agents yet.
6. The salary cap and luxury tax line for the 14-15 season is already set so the calculations I made for that year are accurate.
7. The next few years is where things get tricky. I had to do some research and some digging to find projected numbers for the salary cap and luxury tax line. Here is what I found...
- The general consensus for 15-16 is that the salary cap will be around $66,500,000 and the luxury tax line around $81,000,000.
- After 15-16, everything gets a little hairier. The new TV Deal is supposed to be signed and will either kick in the summer of 2016 or the summer of 2017. In these calculations, I just assumed that the revenue they get from the TV deal won't go into affect until 2017, making the numbers $70,806,035 and $86,253,708 for the cap and tax in 16-17. With the new TV deal in place for the next summer, the cap will be at $88,254,635 and the tax will be $106,455,941. This is the biggest estimated jump with the new TV deal in place.***

With all this in mind, the Blazers have to make some decisions on contracts and cap holds to create any necessary space to sign someone. The next spreadsheet can be found HERE.

Waiving Chris Kaman's contract next summer is inevitable. That's why they gave him the bloated contract in the first place. The $1,000,000 figure in the spreadsheet is what counts towards their team salary after waiving him. The only reason they would keep him is because this could be a tempting trade chip for another team. The non guaranteed salary could fill a slot in a trade and a team could waive him to create cap space after acquiring him. Same goes for Allen Crabbe's contract.

The rest is very tricky and needs to be handled very delicately. The no brainer renouncements for salary cap space are Dorell Wright, Joel Freeland, Victor Claver, and Will Barton. In the case of Freeland, Claver, and Barton, the Blazers could just refuse to extend to them qualifying offers, making them unrestricted free agents. Dorell Wright signed for the room exception last summer, and if they renounce his cap hold, there is a good possibility he could just re-sign for the same figure next summer. Claver I doubt they bring back and Barton can get more money elsewhere. Freeland and Crabbe could definitely be had at the minimum.

The wrench in all of this is Wesley Matthews' and Robin Lopez's cap holds. They are large and take up more cap space than any possible contract these guys will get on the open market. If they renounce both of their cap holds, they can then get cap space (as noted in the spreadsheet) while also holding on to Aldridge's Bird Rights. Unfortunately, if they bring back Lopez and Matthews, they have to sign them to contracts using their cap space and that would surely cut into any space for free agents.

If the goal is to upgrade their rim protection, it is hard to think that they will bring back Lopez. With better centers on the market that can provide rim protection, Lopez might be the guy they let walk for nothing. As I said earlier, he is great at rebounding and he plays hard, but he is a minus defender in the post. There are guys that are obtainable in free agency next summer that can provide rebounding and rim protection (more on those options in a little bit).

The last note is the first round picks. They have each of their first round picks the next three years and those picks have cap holds before they sign their actual contracts. The figures after that in years following are 120% of their minimum salary requirement for rookies, the maximum raise they can get (all rookies sign for 120% of the rookie scale requirements). They can still sign their rookies and go over the cap as well. I arbitrarily used pick 25 because that seemed about the most realistic spot to use for these draft picks.

With Lopez out of the fold, we are going to say that Wesley Matthews signs a contract for something in the neighborhood of $7,500,000 a year, which is more than what he would likely make on the market. That leaves them a little over $10,000,000 in cap space to sign a rim protecting center that will get boards as well. Let's take a look at some options.

Shopping Time!

Portland has a history of trying to sign centers in the offseason. They were the ones that offered Roy Hibbert and Brook Lopez their max offer sheets before they were matched by their respective teams. Both ironically could be free agents again next summer if they opt out of their deals. Lopez will likely command an offer much higher than $10 million if he opts out, but here are three guys that could be had for the Blazers.

1. Roy Hibbert (13-14 stats: 10.8 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 2.2 bpg, 13.54 PER)
Even at his absolute worst last season, Hibbert was among the best rim protectors in the league. Opponents shot 41.4% at the rim against Hibbert last season, first in the league for players that played more than 28 minutes per game and played more than 50 games. Other than that, Hibbert really was horrendous. He had career lows in almost every category. His PER was below league average and career low 13.54, putting him in the bottom 15 among centers that qualify (guys that played in 70% of their team's games). His rebounds/48 and rebound rate (percentage of shots a player rebounds) were in the BOTTOM FIVE when for centers. For a guy that is 7'2", that is unbelievable. His career low 43.9% field goal percentage might be the worst stat of them all. That number was DEAD LAST among centers who played 70% of their team's games. The fact that his usage rate was in the top half of the league makes these numbers look even worse. This would all be a little different if he was a good passer out of the post, but his assist numbers were in the bottom half of the league as well, suggesting that he never passes it out of the post. For a guy that is shooting just south of 44% from the field, that makes him look pretty bad. In short: if Hibbert isn't protecting the rim, he is hurting your team.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNq6ooH9UM4

The hope here would be that with a change of scenery, Hibbert can bounce back. But how many times are we going to use the same excuses? "Hibbert is young." "He is still working on his body." "He just needs to get right mentally." How many years do we have to keep saying that until we realize that he might just be what he is? The only thing that might be salvageable is his age. He will be 28 next season and guys still improve (albeit only a little) at his age. He needs to work on getting position in the low post when he wants the ball. He is constantly getting pushed off the block because of his lack of strength. Here, you can see Antic pushes him out past the block putting him out of position for his left shoulder hook shots he loves to shoot too much.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huZulh-6-1o

We also saw in the Atlanta series that you can't have him guard pick and rolls because of his inability to stay with guys. Antic beat him on these constantly and Hibbert lost him left and right. Jeff Teague destroyed guys in the PnR all series, and Hibbert fell victim many times. I wasn't exaggerating earlier when I said that if Hibbert isn't protecting the rim, he is darn near useless. It seems unlikely he opts out of his contract next season, which guarantees him for $15.5 million, but he might want a change after hearing that the organization is shopping him. His rim protection is very valuable and I'm sure the Blazers would find a way to use (or hide) him on offense so he isn't hurting them.
Estimated Contract: 3 years, $31.4 million (starting at $10, with 4.5% annual raises, 3rd year Team Option)

2. Omer Asik (13-14 stats: 5.8 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 0.8 bpg, 14.05 PER)
Asik had health issues last year combined with his disgruntled demeanor after he took a back seat to Dwight Howard once the Rockets signed him last summer. Portland was one of the teams that were rumored to be interested in Asik at the trade deadline but a deal never formed (they beat Houston in the first round, ironically). The year before, as the starter, Asik played nearly 30 minutes per game and averaged 10.1 ppg with 11.7 rpg. Being a backup clearly messed with his game and made him less motivated. He basically sat out the first quarter to third of the season because he was pouting about his playing time.

When Asik is on the top of his game, he is a solid rim protector and a fierce rebounder. Considering he only played around 20 minutes per game, his blocks/48 are above average. Opponents shot 47.7% at the rim against him last year, comparable to guys like Dwight Howard, Tim Duncan, and Joakim Noah. He uses his body well guarding guys one on one in the post. Where he really makes his money is on the glass. Asik's big frame allows him to get position on rebounds. He had one of the best contested rebound percentages in the league at 45%. The 65.6% rebound percentage he had is comparable to the same aforementioned players plus Aldridge, Al Jefferson, and Tyson Chandler. His rebounds/48 were monstrous considering he averaged nearly 8 per game in 20 minutes per contest. He is clearly elite at protecting the rim and rebounding, two things that the Blazers would want.
Estimated Contract: 4 years, $40 million (flat $10 each year)

3. Kosta Koufos (13-14 stats: 6.4 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 0.9 bpg, 16.54 PER)
I'm convinced somebody is going to get this guy at the MLE next summer (Memphis most likely) and they are going to get a STEAL. Koufos is the best backup big in the league PERIOD. He plays his role and is super versatile. He fits what the Blazers need and will only be 26 next summer, allowing him to continue to grow with the young guys. Koufos averaged over two blocks/48 and opponents shot 46.9% at the rim against him, numbers that are better than Howard, Asik, Chris Andersen, Duncan, and just behind Joakim Noah. Like Asik, he had a contested rebounding percentage of 44.7% and a rebounding percentage similar to guys like David Lee, Enes Kanter, Greg Monroe, and Zach Randolph.

He needs to improve his offensive game. Even in just a small sample (he only played 17 minutes a game), his shots outside of the restricted area are 39%, and shots inside are just 51.9%. Yikes. The other major downside is the other thing I mentioned; his minutes. The rebounding and block stats are nice and all, but those can easily get inflated due to the size of the sample. A good test would be to look at his career high numbers when he was a starter for George Karl in Denver. If he had the chance to start on another team, those numbers would suggest he can be just as much of a force as his minutes increase.
Estimated Contract: 4 years, $23.4 million (Full MLE)

PREDICTION

HERE is the final contract sheet that has all the final numbers on it.

All of the numbers in italics are new contracts that have been signed. I mentioned earlier that we were going to assume that Freeland and Crabbe would stay for the minimum. Also, Wright is re-signing for the room exception again, the only exception the Blazers can use because they are going under the cap to sign Hibbert and bring back Matthews. Make sure to keep in mind that Kaman isn't an actual player on the roster but his $1,000,000 is guaranteed and needs to be accounted for.

They are able to go over the cap because of Aldridge's max contract. He told Portland earlier this summer that he wouldn't sign an extension this summer because he wanted that extra fifth year at the end of the deal that he can only get by signing a max deal with them next July. Him not signing an extension this summer probably helps the Blazers as well so they can have more cap room next summer and then sign Aldridge, allowing them to go over the cap because of his Bird Rights. The other extension to keep in mind next summer is Damian Lillard. He will be eligible to begin negotiating an extension and the figures there are the numbers for a max rookie scale extension. If Kyrie got a max this summer, there is no way Lillard isn't getting one.

I decided to place Hibbert here because I believe he is a realistic option. He will protect the rim well for them and they have shown interest in him before.  In the end, Hibbert probably won't opt out of his contract and they most likely have more of a chance at acquiring him via trade. With the Hibbert addition, they have 13 guys on the roster and plenty of room to add two more minimum contract veterans or rookie free agents.

In order for this all to work out, the Blazers need to do transactions in this order:
1. Waive Kaman and renounce all of the guys they need to renounce (the RFA's + Matthews/Lopez)
2. Sign Matthews and Hibbert
3. Sign Aldridge after Matthews and Hibbert
4. Sign Dorell Wright and the minimum guys
In the new CBA era, timing is key when signing contracts. The Blazers have to go under the cap to sign guys, then can go over the cap by signing Aldridge, and lastly sign Wright to their exception.

In this projection, we don't have the new TV deal revenue going into affect until 2017. That means the Blazers will be taxpayers by a decent margin in 2016. They can get under the tax when Batum signs his new deal (I would guess in the $11-12 million range) and that will help because it is considerably less than his cap hold. The biggest thing going against their cap sheet, however, is Lillard's extension. He is due for a $12 million raise which will cap them out and restrict any sort flexibility the Blazers might have next summer. Luckily, the Blazers won't have to actually pay the tax even though they are over it, because the league doesn't figure cap holds into the equation when they calculate tax payments. With the Lillard extension and the Batum free agency on the horizon in 2016, the Blazers have to act next summer if they are wanting to upgrade their roster and make changes. Ultimately, they could decide to stand pat with the roster they have, which isn't a bad thing. They are a talented group that is young and has potential to get better. If they want to make any home runs, they have to do it next summer before their flexibility runs out.

* All Stats via NBA.com
** All contract numbers via BasketballInsiders.com
*** Calculations done using Larry Coon's CBA FAQ and numbers derived from Duneblogger