by Austin Peters
Whoever thought that we would get to this point?
No other sport does the offseason like the NBA. What other sport can you think of where the offseason is just as exciting as the actual product on the court? Everybody loves to dream and think of best case scenarios for their teams. "Wouldn't it be fun to see Player A and Player B play together?!" "It sure would be something if Team X went out and got Player Y!" "Team Z really needs a player like Player A on their team."
This offseason has been the craziest of any offseason in the history of offseasons. It has to be. Yes we had "The Decision" in 2010, but social media and reporting was not at the level it is currently in the summer of 2014. Throw in the amount of landscape changing free agents, and we have a ton of reasons as to why this offseason is the sexiest yet.
Speaking of landscape-changing-free agents... There is a certain free agent that is currently drawing more attention than others. Ever since the final buzzer sounded and the Spurs hoisted their fifth Larry O'Brien trophy, people have been speculating as to whether or not LeBron James will continue to be a member of the Miami Heat, the team he has been to four straight NBA Finals with and won two championships. Everyday there is new information and speculation as to what is going on in the superstar's mind.
Right now, as it stands at 11:21 AM on Monday July 7th, 2014, Free Agency is at a stand still. A week has gone by and there hasn't been any significant free agent acquisitions (depending on how you feel about Spencer Hawes) other than Kyle Lowry and Marcin Gortat re-signing with their squads. That doesn't change the landscape at all. Guys like Greg Monroe, Isaiah Thomas, Gordon Hayward, Chandler Parsons, Lance Stephenson, Pau Gasol, Luol Deng, and others are waiting for the decisions of the top dogs before they make their own decisions. The dominoes always fall each and every year and free agency always plays out this way; the stars of the market get their money then everyone else gets theirs after them. Carmelo Anthony's decision will most likely come later today (probably while I'm writing this knowing my luck), but nobody knows what is going on with the situation in Miami between LeBron James and the Heat. LeBron is taking his sweet time with his decision; he took a vacation, has his skills academy this week, and will go to Brazil to watch the World Cup. He is creating a lot of uncertainty and anxiety amongst not just fans but also front office executives and other players.
LeBron has put the Heat in a tough position. He has said that he wants to see what Pat Riley, Mickey Arison, and co. can do in Free Agency before he decides to return to South Beach. The Miami Mafia has been aggressive on that front, meeting with guys like Kyle Lowry, Marcin Gortat, Trevor Ariza, Pau Gasol, Marvin Williams, Josh McRoberts, and others. None of these guys, however, are willing to commit to Miami unless there is certainty that Miami will retain LeBron, Bosh, and Wade. Chris Bosh has also said that he will return to Miami for less money if LeBron stays. Ditto for Wade. But there is a huge problem at the center of all this... LeBron won't commit unless he sees improvements in the roster but Riley can't add improvements unless LeBron commits. It is a matter of "who blinks first?"
LeBron holds all of the cards and his hand is a lot better than people seem to understand. He not only controls what the Miami Heat are doing in free agency. He doesn't just control where all other free agents land. LeBron James has control over the entire NBA. However much the power of the league shifts (and it could be a GIGANTIC shift if LeBron decides to leave) rests on LeBron's huge shoulders. Literally, the weight of the NBA is in his hands.
Where will The King build his new Kingdom?
It will be interesting to see how it plays out. LeBron's agent, childhood friend Rich Paul, has met with Phoenix, the Lakers, Cleveland, Dallas, and Houston. It was also reported yesterday that Paul, whose agency is based out of Cleveland, is pushing for a return to Cleveland for the Akron-born superstar. Chris Broussard of ESPN even said his gut tells him LeBron is returning to Cleveland. Sources out of Cleveland say they have deals lined up to clear cap space to make room for a max contract if LeBron decides to return home. He is meeting with Pat Riley within the next couple days to discuss whatever it is that LeBron wants to discuss.
The fact that LeBron is agreeing to meet with Riley and isn't meeting with any other teams face to face has to be a good sign for the Heat. One thing we know for sure is that Pat Riley is a genius and has a way of convincing people to do what he wants. LeBron definitely realizes the power he has, though. He understands his influence and how much of the situation he controls. It will be interesting to see what comes of that meeting and what direction Riley and LeBron's camp goes; if they go the same direction or if they decide to go opposite paths.
Ultimately, as I've adamantly said from Day One (here, here, and here) of this mess, I believe that LeBron will return to Miami. It is still really hard for me to believe that LeBron would return to an owner that wrote a very hurtful letter about him and a city that burned his jerseys. Brian Windhorst (the man who has covered LeBron since he was in high school, written two books about LeBron, and who LeBron admits to knowing more about his life than maybe he even knows) said this morning on "The Herd" that he has three sources that he trusts more than any other (one of them being LeBron) and he hasn't heard from any of those three sources an interest in any other team other than Miami. It will be interesting to see what happens and how it plays out. Until then, LeBron has everybody on pins and needles awaiting his deicision.
Prediction: Miami 80%, Cleveland 15%, Other 5%
Melo Mania
As I said earlier, Melo's decision is supposed to come today. It was reported over the weekend that the only two teams that are in the discussion now are the Lakers and Knicks because they can offer him the most money. Teams like Dallas, Chicago, and Houston have all moved on to other players. He also has homes in both places and spends his summers in Los Angeles. His decision also factors into the Pau Gasol decision because apparently (for whatever reason) Pau is considering following Melo wherever he goes.
The tipping point in Melo's decision? His wife, TV show celebrity Lala, said that she wants to stay in New York. Key rule in life: happy wife, happy life. Not sure Melo would be wise to upset that balance.
Prediction: New York 55%, Los Angeles Lakers 40%, Other 5%
Chris Bosh
Chris Bosh is another key cog in "Decision 2.0." He wants to stay in Miami if LeBron stays. If for some reason LeBron might decide to leave, Houston is aggresively pursuing him. As of this afternoon, they have offered him a full four year max contract and he is seriously considering it. Bosh would be a great fit next to Dwight Howard. But as it stands today, Miami is his preferred destination unless LeBron leaves.
If he does leave, you have to be happy for him getting max money and playing in his home state of Texas. Also, if he does end up in Houston, what a job by Daryl Morey to bring in Chris Bosh and only costing him Omer Asik, Jeremy Lin, and maybe a pick. Amazing to think about.
Prediction: Miami 75%, Houston 25%
Dwyane Wade
Wade isn't going anywhere. There aren't any other teams that are exploring a possibility of bringing Wade in. He is going to re-sign with the Heat. The only question is for how long and for how much? This obviously depends on what happens with LeBron and Bosh's decisions.
I quickly want to point something out concerning Wade... I know that a lot of people don't think that he is anything worth a darn anymore. He hangs out on the baseline like a big waiting for a drop pass, he doesn't space the floor because he can't shoot, and he can't explode to basket like he used to be able too. His knees have made it so he can't play a full season and definitely could be the reason for his struggles in the playoffs. Despite all of this, Dwyane is still a 20-5-5 guy when he is on the floor who gets in passing lanes, makes incredible off ball cuts, and can be a secondary ball handler. Yes it is a huge chore just to get him on the floor at anything close to 100%. But to think that he isn't worth a darn or isn't a key piece on a championship team anymore is just false.
Prediction: Miami 100%
The Restricted Free Agent Market
Restricted Free Agents are so tricky. Teams other than their previous team have all the chips and they have zero say in the matter when it comes down to it. Other teams get hesitant to offer contracts in fear that the team will match. They can't overpay either because then the team could choose not to match and they would be stuck with a player they overpaid (see Omer Asik, Jeremy Lin).
Gordon Hayward and Chandler Parsons are drawing interest from similar teams and are the first two guys that teams will be calling after Melo and LeBron make their decisions. The Hawks, Mavericks, Suns, Cavaliers, Hornets, Lakers, Rockets, Celtics, and Bulls are all similar teams on these guys' lists. They both can't go to the same place so it will depend on where LeBron and Melo end up deciding. Also, in reference to Parsons, he is a key piece in any sort of Kevin Love or Rajon Rondo trade that might happen with the Rockets.
Gordon Hayward: Utah 75%, Cleveland 17%, Celtics 2.5%, Suns 2.5%, Other 3%
Chandler Parsons: Rockets 45%, Dallas, 25%, Bulls 10%, Timberwolves, 10%, Celtics 5%, Other 5%
Monroe is trickier than the above two guys because the Pistons are really determined to keep him and trade Josh Smith for just about anything. Monroe has also had talks with front office members about the kind of stuff he wants to happen in order for him to stay. Not sure how much good it is going to do seeing as the Pistons can just simply match an offer sheet, but for now, it looks like he is returning to be a Piston.
Greg Monroe: Detroit 97%, Other 3%
Isaiah Thomas almost seems like a lock not to return to the Kings after they low-balled him with an offer and overpaid for Darren Collison. On the flip side, it is hard to gauge how much interest he is getting from other teams. I'm going to go ahead and say the Pistons seem like the frontrunner because they are the only team that has offered him a deal so far. Also, like Parsons, he could be a piece in any sort of Rondo deal between Sacramento and Boston.
Isaiah Thomas: Detroit 33%, Boston, 20%, Dallas 17%, Sacramento 15%, Other 15%
Eric Bledsoe, like Monroe, is another guy that is hard to see anywhere else but his previous team. Phoenix has said multiple times they are willing to match any max contract that other teams throw at him. But it is also interesting to see how much Bledsoe and Dragic have been in trade rumors recently. In this day in age, you can't rule anything out but I'm not sure why they would wanna shake things up in spite of the success that Hornacek had with the dual point guard lineup.
Eric Bledsoe: Phoenix 99.5%, Other 0.5%
LANCE!!!
Lance reportedly turned down an offer for 5 years, $44 million from the Pacers. Indy is really close to the luxury tax and it might seem like they are ready to let Lance walk. But Lance is still training at the Pacers' practice facility and there aren't too many teams interested in meeting with him. This could mean a couple things... The Pacers could be planning a huge shakeup. With Larry Bird, don't rule that out. They are trying to land Rondo and Goran Dragic and also are shopping Roy Hibbert and George Hill. They might end up having the same roster next season but don't be shocked if something huge happens in Indianapolis. My personal favorite landing spot for Lance is Chicago. I feel like he would be a great fit with Rose and Butler and Thibs no nonsense locker room.
Prediction: Indiana 50%, Chicago 20%, Dallas 15%, Lakers 10%, Other 5%
Luol Deng
Deng is being pursued hard by the Hawks. They have the cap space to offer him the money he is asking and they signed Thabo Sefalosha hoping that he would be able to recruit his close friend Deng. Also, any team mentioned above is a candidate to have Deng after the LeBron mess gets sorted out.
Prediction: Atlanta 40%, Dallas, 30%, Los Angeles (either Lakers or Clippers) 20%, Miami 10%
Pau Gasol
I know that Pau wants to play with Melo, but why? That just seems strange. He and Kobe are also close so it wouldn't be surprising if Pau returned to LA now that Mike D'Antoni is out. He has also met with Miami and OKC and personally, I would love to see him play for OKC. I think he is a perfect fit for that team and would work perfectly in their offense. Not to mention he would be a great locker room presence. Sadly, they are probably the last team on this list. It is going to be hard to choose between NY and LA, no matter what Melo decides. It is going to be hard for NY to make room for him if that is eventually where he wants to go.
Prediction: Lakers 42%, New York 38%, Miami 15%, OKC 3%, Other 2%
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