Anything is Possible!!!

Anything is Possible!!!

March 20, 2017

Second Round Recap: Duke/South Carolina

Duke

Frank Jackson
6-4, PG, Freshman
15 points, 2-5 3FG, 5 turnovers

Jackson is playing out of position with Duke.  He isn't a point guard but has had to play point guard due to the roster deficiency at that position.  Jackson showed why he isn't a point guard in this game, throwing the ball away five times and struggling to bring the ball up against PJ Dozier's pressure.  Jackson is tough attacking the basket in a straight line and showed that he can go both ways, but he doesn't have many dribble moves to create separation from pressure. 

 

What makes him a potential shooting guard in the NBA is his elite shooting capability (39.5% from three) and his 6-4, 210 pound frame with a 6-7 wingspan. In addition to being able to hit spot up threes, Jackson plays tough on defense, one of the few Duke players who actually seemed to care on that end. He leverages his length and frame to absorb contact from guys driving and his instincts help him stay in front step by step.  He isn't an elite athlete which might hurt his ceiling on that end.  Right now, Jackson projects as a spot up shooting two guard who has a limited ceiling on defense.  If he can ever get around to developing competent point guard skills, he would be a much more serious prospect.

Luke Kennard
6-5, SG, Sophomore
11 points, 2 steals, 1-6 FG, 1-4 3FG, 8-8 FT

Kennard picked a bad game to have one of his worst performances of the year.  The struggled started early on defense for Kennard.  He was tasked with tracking Sindarius Thornwell and South Carolina went right at Kennard.  He ended up getting into foul trouble because of it.  He has average length with a 6-5 wingspan which doesn't help him lock and trail screens or recover in front of guys when he falls behind.  He sprints off of screens on offense but doesn't always do it defensively.  He isn't a plus athlete and doesn't have any sort of quickness about his movements.  He will struggle mightily on defense at the next level.

Kennard has been one of the best shooters in college basketball this year and what really impressed people early on in the year was his playmaking ability.  It seemed to go away toward the end of the year and especially in his game.  Struggling to get going, Kennard hunted his own shot a lot in this game. When he got outside of his comfort zone, he looked bad trying to do to much with his dribble and wasn't looking to pass either.  He can't afford to give up his playmaking skills in favor of forcing his shot because he isn't athletic or quite creative enough to be a primary scoring option in the NBA.  He will have to refine those skills more if he wants to stick in the league.

Grayson Allen
6-4, SG, Junior
20 points, 5-13 FG, 3-10 3FG, 7-7 FT, 3 turnovers

Grayson has a lot of the similar strengths and weaknesses that Kennard has.  Grayson has had some explosive dunks this season, but in tight spaces he isn't as explosive or shifty.  He forced it a lot in this game as well, over dribbling and trying to go through traffic in order to get a shot up.  Grayson led the team in assists this season but you wouldn't have noticed it watching this game.  He wasn't looking to move the ball and tried to be the hero to bring Duke back in the game.  He has range on his shot and his stroke looks good, it just sometimes takes a little while for his to load it up and get it off. He regressed majorly from downtown this year (36.5% down from 41.7%), which could be due to poor shot selection.

Like Kennard, South Carolina was looking to get Grayson switched onto Thornwell and have him go to work on Allen.  Allen plays hard and plays with passion but he is a step slow moving his feet and couldn't handle the big bodied Thornwell. He only weighs 185 pounds, which won't help him against wings at the next level.  Like Kennard, he isn't going to be able to guard in the NBA and if he doesn't embrace being more of a playmaker, his NBA prospects are slim as well.  He had a big time setback season after having two quality years at Duke previously.  He will have to have a redemptive senior season in order for him to be considered a serious draft prospect again.

Jayson Tatum
6-8, SF, Freshman
15 points, 6-12 FG, 2-4 3FG, 5 turnovers

This wasn't Tatum's ideal game, but you could still see the reasons why everybody is so high on him and why he'll likely be a top five pick in June.

Tatum is an elite shot creator. He has a nice arsenal of dribble moves to get to his patented elbow jumper.  He's a killer from 18 feet and has improved as a three point shooter throughout the course of the season. Duke struggled to get post entries into him because Tatum was getting pushed off his spot.  He is 6-8 but only weighs 200 pounds, something that will hurt him when he tries to do the same things at the NBA level he did at the college level.  Tatum's had a negative reputation on his athleticism, but he did a few things that stood out vertically, including a sweep along the baseline, one dribble, and two handed dunk. 

He has long arms (6-11 wingspan) which help him contain guys on the perimeter.  He isn't always the most nimble sliding along with guys and he has bad hips at times.  But his length and competitiveness helps him recover for that.  He only had three rebounds in this game, but he competes hard on the glass (7.3 per game).  The question with that will be if he can hold his own on the glass against bigger players in the NBA.  There's a chance he can get exposed a little bit in ball screens as well if he doesn't tighten up his feet and hips.  The potential to be a solid defender is there, however, and if he can become a consistent three point shooter, he's an elite prospect that will be hard to pass on.

Amile Jefferson
6-9, PF, Senior
14 points, 15 rebounds, 6 blocks, 4-7 FG

Jefferson had an impressive final game in a long, productive career at Duke. He plays extremely hard and competes on every single play.  Using that energy along with his 7-0 wingspan, he is able to overcome his 200 pound frame and dominate the glass.  He'll scratch and claw and fight for every rebound, even going out of his area to get it.  He is a master at timing in help side in order to defend the rim, shutting away six of South Carolina's attempts in the paint.  He fights super hard on post catches and does his work early to deny or push his man off the block.  He knows all the little tricks he needs to use in order to leverage his deficiences.

Offensively, he is limited to offensive rebound put backs.  He plays low to the ground which doesn't help when trying to finish at the rim.  He gets most of his points on garbage buckets like drop offs and put backs.  He isn't a good free throw shooter (62.9%) and doesn't project to have a jumper ever.  He can't dribble or pass either.  He is a willing screener and knows his role, which is attractive for teams.  The only problem is his lack of verticality and foot speed will keep him from being able to play four at the next level.  Some team will more than likely invite him to training camp, but his chances of making a team are slim.

Harry Giles
6-11, C, Freshman
0 points, 3 rebounds

Giles only played nine minutes in this game, which has been par for the course this season for Harry.  He is moving better and is having more success with his lateral movements on defense.  He even had a few impressive rebounds outside of his area, showing why teams were in love with his length and physical tools going into the season.  Offensively, there is no way to tell what he can do, especially not after this game.  Not only does he not play significant minutes, he is about the sixth or seventh option on the team.  We really need another year to watch and evaluate this kid before coming to a conclusion on what he can be at the NBA level.  As he gets healthier and more comfortable playing, the picture will become clearer.

South Carolina

Sindarius Thornwell
6-5, SF, Senior
24 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, 6-14 FG, 3-6 3FG, 9-12 FT

Thornwell's statistical profile is outstanding. He led his team in points, rebounds, and steals while finishing second on the team in assists. He's the complete package offensively.  He can score at all three levels and knows how to use his size to get into the paint and get to his shot.  He finished with either hand at the rim and used an array of spins and dribble moves to get where he needed to go. Thornwell has been living at the line all season long (8.3 attempts per game), and this game was no different.  If he isn't bullying his way to the paint for bucket, he's getting to the line.

Thornwell's defense is tough, using his body and 6-9 wingspan to disrupt and make guys uncomfortable.  He doesn't have the quick twitch movements you want in a guard, but he has the body to switch across multiple positions.  His steals total projects him to be a good defender at the next level, and you can see why with his physical tools.  He did a good job guarding both Tatum and Kennard, shutting them down at times.  Who knows whether Thornwell will be able to score at this level when he gets to the NBA but he at the very least will be able to hit open threes, attack closeouts, and find the open man. He's definitely a sleeper in this draft.

PJ Dozier
6-6, PG, Sophomore
11 points, 5-12 FG, 0-4 3FG

Dozier has a ways to go before he is going to be the prospect everybody believes he can be.  He has elite size for a point guard at 6-6 with long arms.  He uses that well on defense, where he made life miserable for Frank Jackson, Grayson Allen, and whoever else brought the ball up for Duke.  He is a blur in transition as well.  When he gets a full head of steam, he's hard to stop.

The improvements need to come in the skill department.  He doesn't have good touch on his jumper, reflected in his poor free throw percentage (59.2%).  None of his threes looked good coming out of his hands.  He didn't have any of the action run for him, most of it was run for Thornwell and Notice, so he didn't have a chance to really run pick and roll and get guys involved.  His handle is shaky at best, which is worrisome for a point guard.  He'll have to have a big summer of development in those areas for him to be a top prospect next year.

Chris Silva
6-9, C, Sophomore
17 points, 10 rebounds, 2 blocks, 6-12 FG, 5-5 FT

Silva had a great game and showed flashes of being a potential pro prospect.  He isn't always athletic, but he knows how to use the verticality rule to his advantage on defense when it comes to protecting the rim. He also got busy on the offensive boards, grabbing five in this game.  He plays hard and runs the floor really hard, even if he does look awkward at times when he sprints.  He struggled a few times trying to finish at the rim, and Amile Jefferson got the best of him a few times.  He did hit a few mid range jumpers, however, and went 5-5 from the free throw line. It looked ugly coming out of his hands, but he's shooting 74.7% from the line on the year, so it isn't that bad.  Going to have to keep an eye on him and see how he fairs against the long, athletic monsters in the middle of Baylor's zone in the Sweet 16.

Duane Notice
6-2, SG, Senior
17 points, 4 rebounds, 3 steals, 6-8 FG, 2-4 3FG

The shot was falling for Notice in this game, which was a huge key to South Carolina's second half surge.  He was finishing well at the rim, leveraging his 225 pound stocky frame to bounce off guys and make tough finishes through contact.  If his outside shot is going, South Carolina has a chance to make a run.  He competes on hard on defense and used his strength to bother the Duke guards.  He doesn't have the athleticism or quickness to be a pro prospect, but he had a huge game that helped the Gamecocks knock off the Blue Devils.

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