Last season, the Phoenix Suns surpassed their lottery bound expectations by missing out on the playoffs the last day of the season. This year, it doesn't look like that feat will be repeated. How did the Suns go from being the surprise of the NBA to a team in flux just one season later?
by Austin Peters
The basketball world saw the trade deadline come and go in a flash last week. In an instant, several teams seemed to make huge deals that changed the outlook of their squads. In the middle of it all was the Suns, a team that expected to be in the mix for the playoffs this season after narrowly missing out last year. In the standings, the Suns are still very much in the picture. Ask anyone that watches basketball on a regular basis, and the answer isn't nearly as optimistic as their record might point out.
Everything started to boil when the Suns decided to use cap room to sign Isaiah Thomas this last offseason. Already having two point guards on the roster, Thomas was supposed to be the bench support Phoenix seemed to lack. Their three headed point guard monster of Thomas, Eric Bledsoe (who signed a big five year deal in the same summer), and free-agent-to-be Goran Dragic was supposed to compete for the "best backcourt in the NBA" title. Up until a few weeks before the trade deadline, it seemed like the Suns were going to make the playoffs with their three point guard rotation working beautifully.
Then the rumors started to flood in. Dragic, a third team All-NBA guard last season, was apparently unhappy with the Thomas signing the previous summer. Dragic's usage had dropped from last season with the addition of the ball dominant Thomas. The writing was on the wall well before the trade deadline. Players in the last year of their contracts are always candidates to be traded. But with the Thomas signing getting under Dragic's skin so much, despite the success of the team, Dragic felt that it was time to go. His agent submitted a trade request, with specific locations he would re-sign. On Thursday, Dragic wound up being traded to Miami for a hodge podge of expirings and a couple first round picks.
The Suns weren't done. Just as it seemed that they were content to move forward with Thomas and Bledsoe in the backcourt, Isaiah was shipped to Boston for a first round pick and an expiring. The Suns, all of a sudden, went from having three legitimate point guards to having one in a blink of an eye.
Just as fast as they lost the two point guards, however, Phoenix picked up a replacement. In a three team trade with Philadelphia and Milwaukee, the Suns got Brandon Knight from Milwaukee for the cost of Miles Plumlee, 2014 first round pick Tyler Ennis, and their top five protected Lakers first round pick. From a talent perspective, all did not seem lost in Phoenix.
A lot of the comments back and forth between Dragic's camp and the Suns hasn't been the most comforting. Before the trade, Dragic took a stab at the Phoenix front office, saying, "I don't trust them anymore." When asked about trading his best player away, Suns GM Ryan McDonough responded by saying, "Eric Bledsoe and Markieff Morris are still in Phoenix Suns' uniforms." Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported today that Dragic went out of his way to say that the Heat "take care of players" and he "feels spoiled here." The Suns went out of their way to state how nice things seem in the locker room post trade. The bickering back and forth doesn't look good for either side and is a testament to how bad that situation really was.
The trades have shaken up the team makeup, and it isn't looking likely that they would be able to squeak into a tight Western Conference playoff race with so much roster turnover.
On the Court
The Suns were made famous last season by the fast-paced style that new coach Jeff Hornacek brought to the team. The Suns were eighth in pace and offensive effiency, a stat that ranks teams based how much their team scores per 100 possessions. This year, they ramped the pace up even more, currently ranking second in the league, only behind the Warriors (offensive efficiency is seventh).
The Suns shoot a little over a quarter of their shots within the first six seconds of the shot clock, a mark that leads the league according to NBA.com.
It's clear that Coach Hornacek wants them to push the ball right off the rim on the other end. Whether it's a lead guard, wing, or forward, they get the ball and go.
The improvements of guys like Markieff Morris and Alex Len are going to be pivotal for this team moving forward. Morris has especially been sensational this year. Coming out of college, he was considered to be the lesser of the Morris twins (Marcus was Big 12 player of the year at Kansas). Both twins signed bargains for extensions in the offseason (more on that later) that make them valuable pieces to the Suns' future moving forward.
The Suns have a hefty task ahead of them, however. With the fast pace they play, it puts a lot of stress on their point guards. Of the 99.3 possessions per game that Phoenix plays, Isaiah Thomas, Goran Dragic, and Eric Bledsoe were three of the team's top five players in usage among their rotation guys. While Brandon Knight led the Bucks in usage when in Milwaukee, his rate was a similar percentage to Thomas and Dragic. I'm saying all of this to point out that the Suns are essentially replacing two guys they used a ton for one guy with a high usage rate. Replacing a third team All-NBA guard and well-above average point guard with one player isn't going to be easy.
Who knows how Knight will fit in with Phoenix. My initial feeling is that it is going to be a perfect fit. He is an above 40% three point shooter joining a team that ranks fifth in three point attempts per game. He is the perfect combo guard whose always had the reputation of being a two trying to be a one. The Suns have mastered the new positionless direction that the league is heading, and Knight fits the bill. While his assist/turnover ratio isn't as good as Thomas or Dragic, it shouldn't be to much of a problem, seeing as the Suns rank in the bottom half of the league in that category.
One of the things Dragic is extremely good at, however, was attacking the hoop. Dragic is top ten in the league in field goal percentage on drives (for rotation players who attack at least twice a game). Knight shoots a horrendous 43% on the same exact amount of drives per game (7.3) as Dragic (53.5%). This might change with Knight not having to carry the load as a lead ball handler, or it might stay the same with how often Phoenix uses both point guards at the same time.
Depth will definitely be a concern going forward. This team absolutely can't afford to sustain one injury to a key player in their rotation. They are suddenly flooded with wing players after their two big trades with guys like PJ Tucker, Gerald Green, Archie Goodwin, Danny Granger, John Salmons, Marcus Thornton, and TJ Warren all going to be in a fight for minutes (not to mention the few times they go big with Marcus or Markieff on the wing).
Even though he wasn't playing much, Tyler Ennis moving to Milwaukee is a blow for a team that went from having too much point guard depth to none at all. The Suns love Archie Goodwin, even going to the extent of making him unavailable in trade talks, so maybe they feel that he is next up at the backup point guard spot. Goodwin is of the same mold as Knight, however; both former Kentucky players that played a lot off the ball in college and are making the transition to being a lead ball handler in the NBA.
Miles Plumlee had fallen out of the rotation with Len's emergence and the Brandan Wright trade. Despite having a career saving season in 13-14, Plumlee has regressed this season, making it easier for the Suns to cut ties with him. They had even gone to the extent of playing super small at times with Markieff at center, limiting Plumlee's minutes even more.
All this being said, the Suns are going to be counting on a lot of NBA journeymen and growing young players to try and snag an eighth seed from a team that has been to the Finals, and another sporting arguably the best player in basketball this season (yes, Anthony Davis is in the MVP discussion). Its an uphill battle that more than likely will end in missing out on the playoffs yet again this season.
Front Office
In our podcast last Friday, I explained the importance of context when it comes to trades in the NBA. There are so many variables that come into play when thinking about transactions. It is way more complex than trading Player X for Player Y like everybody makes it out to be.
Phoenix is a great example of this. Goran Dragic is going to be an unrestricted free agent this summer, free to sign with any team of his choosing. He had made it clear that he wanted to be traded or he was going to leave, forcing the Suns' hand. Losing a player like that on your team for absolutely nothing has horrendous repercussions (look at Los Angeles post Dwight, Cleveland post LeBron, etc.). Dragic is nowhere near the caliber player of a Dwight or LeBron, but he was the best player on the team. Letting him leave for nothing isn't an option when you have the ability to grab someone to replace him.
Dragic has been lobbying for a max contract, which drove his decision on where he wanted to be traded. Brandon Knight is also due for a max this offseason coming off his rookie contract. A few weeks ago, I explained the difference and relativity of a max contract; why lots of players receive them nowadays, and who is getting one this summer (Knight and Dragic included). Knight's max contract this offseason would have a starting salary at just over $16 million with Dragic's starting at north of $20 million. Dragic will be 29; Knight is 23. The question that the Suns brain trust probably fought over was this: Would you rather pay 23 year old Brandon Knight 5 years/$90 million, or 29 year old Goran Dragic 5 years/$100+ million?
The other question that they probably thought even longer and harder about was whether to trade the Lakers' top 5 protected pick or not. Drafting a superstar is the most cost efficient way to build a contender due to how small and controlled rookie scale contracts are. If the Suns would have gotten that Lakers pick (top five protected this year, top three protected the next two years, and then unprotected in 2018), they would've had a high chance of nabbing that superstar. Even if they did draft that superstar player, however, the most likely scenario is that they have to wait a minimum of two to three years for that player to develop into a guy who will be a big contributor for the team. The Suns clearly are in win now mode, not willing to wait and see if a player will develop into a key rotation player. With all that in mind: Would you rather have a proven potential All-Star in Brandon Knight now, or role the dice on another draft pick and wait the next three to five years for him to turn into somebody worth anything?
Hopefully this helps you to understand the complexity and context that goes into making decisions like this. I would have done the same things that Phoenix did. Owner Robert Sarver and McDonough were dealt a tough hand, and they came out of it about as good as you possibly could. If the Suns somehow make the playoffs, you could make a case for McDonough being Executive of the Year.
Just like all the other team profiles, here are the resources you need: the Suns' cap sheet starting next year and the salary cap notes I provided.
Assuming Danny Granger gets bought out and they renounce the rights to Marcus Thornton, Phoenix has a ton of cap room to play with before they sign Knight to a Bledsoe-like deal. Free agents haven't necessarily been willing to sign in Phoenix, but credit to McDonough and his ability to get bargain contracts and make them a player financially each summer. An example of this is the steal of an extension they signed the Morris twins too. Having two guys on your roster with a league average PER making $13 million combined per season is an absolute steal. Most teams pay one guy that much for the type of production they get out of the twins. They are a testament to McDonough's ability to get value out of every deal.
Bottom Line
If you think about all of the major trades that Phoenix has pulled off in recent years (Bledsoe, Dragic, Knight), and the decent job they've done drafting (hit on Len and Markieff, wiffed on Kendall Marshall), the Suns have done a solid job at putting together this current roster. They are just waiting for the superstar; whether it be through the cap space they have, the draft, or one of their current players developing into one.
With their draft positions going forward, and with Eric Bledsoe being the only player on the roster with a distant shot at being a number one option, it looks like they are putting all their eggs in the free agency basket. With the salary cap expected to sky rocket, that isn't that bad of an option. But just about every other team in the league is doing the same thing, making free agency the farthest thing from a guarantee. You can control who you draft and you can control the trades you make, but you can't control who signs with you in free agency. No matter how much cap space you carve out and how attractive you make your franchise, there is no guarantee of a player signing with you.
There is no reason to panic. The Suns lucked into having a good team, getting a career year out of Dragic, hiring a good coach with a killer system, and finding diamonds in the rough like Bledsoe and Markieff. Remember, just a year ago they were willing to start from scratch. They are way ahead of their own schedule, and given their track record, should be excited about the future.
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