Team Profile: Denver Nuggets

In today's NBA, most teams are either really bad on purpose or a championship contender. The Nuggets are neither.  How do they get out of the pit of mediocrity they've established in Denver?

by Austin Peters



It was just two seasons ago that the Denver Nuggets were a playoff team that looked poised to be in the postseason for years to come.  They claimed the three seed in the West thanks in large part to their 38-3 record at home.  Playing in the high altitude has always given them an extra home court advantage against teams not used to playing in the mile-high city.  Ty Lawson had emerged into one of the league's better point guards, Kenneth Faried became the "Manimal," and guys like Andre Iguodala, Danilo Gallinari, and Wilson Chandler had all enjoyed successful seasons.  Despite losing in the first round to a red hot Golden State Warriors, the future looked bright in Denver.

The following summer, Andre Iguodala left in free agency to go join the team that ousted them in the playoffs.  Gallinari suffered a torn ACL before the playoffs began and didn't play a game in 13-14.  Ty Lawson missed 20 games, JaVale McGee only played in five, they fired Coach of the Year George Karl, and signed a bunch of mediocre players to cap clogging contracts.  They finished 36-46, good for 11th in the West.  As of today, Denver is 19-29, sitting eight and a half games out of the playoff picture following a loss by thirty points to the Grizzlies (a game that wasn't even close from the start), and a blowout loss to a bad Hornets team.

This team has been a hot mess over the last 18 months.  On the court, they look disorganized and uninterested.  Off the court, there are rumors of Kenneth Faried being a locker room nuisance, Brian Shaw being on the hot seat, and a few guys have already been traded from the team (with more possibly coming). Is any of this fixable? Or is Denver going to be sitting in this hell of mediocrity for a while?

On the Court

This last offseason, the Nuggets decided to extend Kenneth Faried to the tune of a four year, $50 million deal (more on that contract later when we get into the front office stuff).  Initially, however, they were going to give him an even bigger five year, $60 million extension (again, more on that later) that would've made him the highest paid player on the team.  Normally, the highest paid player on your team is your best player, or should be.  Ty Lawson, who everybody can reasonably assess is the team's best player, is still the highest paid player until Faried's five year extension was going to kick in.  By doing this, the front office (albeit maybe unintentionally) made it look like they believe Faried is the team's best player around whom they are going to build. The problem with this is that Faried shouldn't ever be your highest paid player and if he is the best player on your team, then you're destined for the lottery every year.

Faried came in and took the league by storm his rookie season by posting a near double-double average and a stellar 21.94 PER.  Since then, his numbers have stayed the same: around 11-12 ppg, 9 rpg, and a PER just above league average.  His first year, he looked like a monster.  Since then, he hasn't made any improvements to his game to make it look like he is going to be a future All-Star.

Faried has made his money as a relentless rim runner and hard worker on the glass.  When Faried gets going, it is fun to watch.  He is a fan favorite in Denver because of plays like the one below, where he gets the rebound on one end and goes coast to coast for a monster dunk on the other.



That is definitely one of the underrated things about Faried's game (and something that I personally love bigs to do): he has the ability to grab the rebound and lead the fast break without giving it to a guard.  Blake Griffin and Joakim Noah are two other guys who do the same. How terrifying is it when you have a big guy going full steam down court?

Since he came into the league, Faried has also been a great pick and roll guy.  He has a great feel of where to set the screen, when to roll, the angle he needs to take towards the basket, and is great at setting a screen because of his big body.  In this clip, he notices Lawson's guy get in front to ice his screen, immediately wades into the open space, then breaks to the hoop for a dunk on the great Lawson pocket pass.



Faried is a liability on defense.  He is listed at 6'8", but that is probably way to generous.  He measured at 6'6" during the NBA draft combine, making his size a major weakness.  He is the perfect example of the fact that you can have all the athleticism in the world, but can be a bad rim protector because of your size.
 


His reputation as a great rebounder might be overblown as well.  He is a great offensive rebounder, currently 12th in the league in total offensive rebounds.  Offensive rebounding, however, is normally something that you do based on athleticism and motor.  Defensive rebounding, however, is all about positioning and boxing out.  Faried relies too much on his motor and doesn't box out, allowing his guy to get offensive rebounds.



Shot goes up, Faried doesn't box anyone out, tries to jump for it, and Gibson dunks all over the world.  Faried may be athletic and bouncy, but since he is undersized, he needs to work harder to clear guys out in order to get rebounds on the defenseive end.

Having a high motor as the main weapon in your arsenal is great for role players.  When I think of Faried, I think of someone like the Raptors' Amir Johnson; a guy that makes $7 million a year.  I don't think he is Tyson Chandler; a guy making $14 million.  He is going to get paid close to that, which isn't ideal for a guy like Faried, who has never played more than 30 minutes per game in a season.

I know it seems like this has turned into a breakdown of Kenneth Faried's game, but when your franchise commits a ton of money to you, then you become the focal point of the organization.  The huge problem with guys like Faried that stay four years in college is they tend to have a low ceiling in the NBA.  Faried's lack of improvement in his game and numbers is definitely a testament to that.  If you're going to extend a guy for four more years, wouldn't you want him to show at least some promise or room for growth?

This is just one of the many problems going forward for the Nuggets. This team is a disaster on the court.  Their offense has no rhythm and flow to it and doesn't look like they have a system for anything at all.



Lots of standing around going on until Afflalo gets the ball and drives into a clogged lane full of Clippers, including one of the best defensive centers in the league waiting to destroy his shot.  So many of the Nuggets' possessions resemble this one.  It is a testament to the way their team has been built.  They have lots of guys that, by themselves, you think to yourself and say, "Oh he would be great on this other team, they should trade for him!" But on the Nuggets, they look trapped within a squad full of mediocre guys who should all be the fifth best player on a contending team.

There have been a few bright spots.  Ty Lawson is having arguably the best year of his career, which happens to be the first year he hasn't missed a game (knock on wood).  Jusuf Nurkic has turned into a post up beast, punking other big men and walking around like he owns the place.  Gary Harris has shown flashes, even though his rookie season has been riddled with nagging injuries.

Yet this team seems to lack a clear identity when they play.  They never seem like they know whether they want to run or walk the ball up.  Brian Shaw has clearly struggled in his second year as the head coach in Denver.  He wants them to play a lot like the Pacers did when he was an assistant coach there; slow, grind it out basketball for 48 straight minutes.  The problem is, this team was constructed to play George Karl basketball, blowing the doors off of teams by playing super fast.  On top of that, Shaw has pretty consistently called out his players after games.  All of this is probably why he is on the hot seat.  This team is in free fall, and Shaw might be the scapegoat when the season ends.

Front Office

The Faried extension I mentioned earlier is the perfect snapshot of how this front office is currently being run.  It was first reported that the Nuggets gave Faried, a player coming off of his rookie contract, a five year extension.  The problem, however, is that there is rule in the CBA called the "Designated Player Rookie Scale Extension" that states only one player on the team can get a five year extension coming off their rookie deal, and it has to be for the max salary.  After being told their extension wouldn't comply with the CBA, the Nuggets restructured their deal and gave Faried a four year extension instead.  This lack of attention to detail on contracts show how disorganized this front office must be.

I've already talked about how Faried's extension was too much. The last couple offseasons, they've overpaid players like JaVale McGee (making $24 million the next two seasons) and JJ Hickson (signed for three years, $15 million) instead of re-signing Andre Iguodala or going after other stars to put next to Faried and Lawson.  Their cap sheet is full of guys making somewhere between $5-$12 million per season.  Filling your team with those mid level contract guys eats up your cap space quickly, and the Nuggets are paying the price with virtually no cap space between now and 2016.

They were close to the tax this season and were able to duck it by trading away Mozgov for nothing and getting rid of Nate Robinson. Next season, they will have almost the same roster back and will almost certainly pay the tax once Faried's extension kicks in and they sign guys to fill out the roster.  This isn't a good thing if your team doesn't look like they are remotely close to contention sometime soon.

The only good thing that can come of guys with these types of contracts is they can become great salaries in trades.  The Nuggets have tried going after guys like Reggie Jackson and Brook Lopez to infuse some more talent into their roster, and have aggressively tried to move JaVale McGee, Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, and Arron Afflalo.  The guy that might bring the most in return, unfortunately, is Lawson. If Denver decides that they want to build for the future long term and that they can't compete with some of the West's point guards with Lawson at the helm, they could end up flipping him to another team for more assets.

Prediction

I said it last week during their game against Memphis, but I think that over the course of the next 6-8 months, I predict that Ty Lawson, Wilson Chandler, Arron Afflalo, and JaVale McGee will get traded. I don't know for who or for what, but just watching these guys play, none of them look happy and could definitely fetch some decent assets in return.  Brook Lopez would be a good fit for the way Shaw wants to play, but then that would take away minutes from Nurkic, who needs more minutes to develop.

Either way, this team is lottery bound for this season and next, with a lot of potential for it to happen beyond as well.  Nobody of any value or All-Star caliber is going to sign with Denver, and with the amount of turnover and uncertainty that is ensuing, it isn't the most desirable situation to play in.  Unfortunately for Brian Shaw, he is going to be the first guy to go.  When that happens, expect a long spiral downward for the next 18 months in Denver.