Anything is Possible!!!

Anything is Possible!!!

December 26, 2014

What Could've Been: The Rapid Rise, and Possible Fall, of OKC

The Oklahoma City Thunder have spent over half a decade building a championship contender.  Once the league's youngest, most electrifying team, they now have to do the one thing that they aren't willing to do to become great.  What does this franchise need to do in order to regain their full potential?

by Austin Peters



On October 24, 2006, the NBA approved Howard Schultz's sale of the Seattle SuperSonics to Clayton Bennett for a total $350 million.  It isn't like Schultz didn't try to keep the team in Seattle.  The City of Seattle could not agree with Schultz and his ownership group, the Basketball Club of Seattle, on a publicly funded expansion project of the Sonics' arena.  After failing to find the funds to make the upgrades, Schultz finally decided to sell the team to Bennett and his ownership group, Professional Basketball Club LLC.  After a few failed attempts to keep the team in Seattle, Bennett announced in November of 2007 that the SuperSonics were to relocate to Oklahoma City, the city that hosted the New Orleans Hornets for two seasons while the city recovered from Hurricane Katrina. 

The City of Seattle tried everything they could to keep the team, from lawsuits to protests to fundraisers.  They had every reason to be upset about the departure of the city's NBA franchise.  They had won an NBA title in 1979 while enjoying many other winning seasons.  In 2007, the year before relocation, Seattle had drafted Kevin Durant, who looked as though he was going to be a future superstar in the league.  They had all the reasons in the world to be excited about the future and be disappointed that the future wouldn't become a reality.

The relocation eventually was approved and in 2008, the Sonics were moved to Oklahoma City, where they changed the name of the franchise to the Thunder.  As expected, the first season in 2008-2009 was a struggle.  The Thunder had a losing streak of 14 games early in the season, during which they fired their coach PJ Carlesimo and assistant Paul Westhead.  Scott Brooks was promoted to interim head coach, and the team finished 23-59.

The 2009-2010 season was a complete and drastic change from the first season in the new city.  With another season of experience under their belt, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Serge Ibaka began to gel and finally come into their own as players.  They also added rookie James Harden to the mix, bringing another versatile scorer and playmaker to the rotation.  Durant himself enjoyed a very successful season, becoming the youngest player to win a scoring title. In just their second year as a franchise, the Thunder made the playoffs and lost in the first round to the eventual champion Los Angeles Lakers in a six game series.

Their rapid rise continued into 2010-2011.  Led by Durant, the Thunder finished 55-27 on their way to the fourth seed in the West.  In the middle of the season, they made a trade for Kendrick Perkins; a rough and rugged center who brought toughness, leadership, and championship experience to this young squad.  After ripping through Denver in the first round and grinding out a seven game series win against the Grizzlies, Oklahoma City made the Western Conference Finals in just their third season.  Once again, they lost to the eventual champions, this time being the Dallas Mavericks.  Despite losing, the Thunder had clearly made it known to the rest of the league that they were here to stay.  With a young core of Durant, Westbrook, Harden, and Ibaka all being under 25 years old, not only were they contenders, but they were in it for the long haul.

2011-2012 was a magical season for Oklahoma City.  In the lockout shortened season, the Thunder again made the playoffs and destroyed their opposition.  They swept the defending champion Dallas Mavericks in the first round and followed it up with a five game blowout of the Los Angeles Lakers in the second.  After losing the first two games to the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference Finals, Oklahoma City won four straight, clinching their first Finals appearance in franchise history. They were to face the runner up from last season's Finals, the Miami Heat, who sported one of the leagues most star studded lineups that included All Stars LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh.  The Thunder showed their youth and inexperience in the series, falling in five games to Miami.  Nevertheless, Oklahoma City really felt that it was their title to lose for the next decade.  With a core so young and talented, and with their first Finals "jitters" out of the way, they knew that it was only a matter of time until they captured their first title.

Then it happened.  The following summer, Oklahoma City tried its best to come to an agreement on an extension with James Harden.  After coming to multiple standstills, they decided that it just wasn't going to happen.  Instead of waiting until the following summer, when Harden would hit restricted free agency, the Thunder traded him to the Houston Rockets for Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb, two first round picks, and a second round pick.  Harden's extension was going to be very expensive, and the Thunder felt that the long term bet would be to save money by not paying him a lot.  The Thunder had the best record in the regular season that year, but in the first round lost Russell Westbrook to a knee injury that sidelined him the rest of the playoffs.  Despite a valiant effort from Kevin Durant, the Thunder lost in the second round to the Memphis Grizzlies.

The 2013-2014 brought about almost the exact same result as 12-13.  With Russell Westbrook missing tons of games due to his recurring knee issues, Kevin Durant had to shoulder the load for the shorthanded Thunder.  Durant went on to win his first MVP and the Thunder again reached the Western Conference Finals for the third time in four seasons.  Unfortunately, Serge Ibaka got hurt this time, and wasn't there to help Oklahoma City in their first two games against the eventual champion San Antonio Spurs.  Two straight years, the Thunder had a championship contending team only to be halted by injuries to major players.

***

Now we are here. Seven years after the team announced it was going to move to Oklahoma City, the Thunder have enjoyed arguably the most rapid ascension to the top of the league in the history of the NBA.  Credit Sam Presti and the Thunder front office for that.  They struck gold in drafting elite, All Star caliber players in Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, and Serge Ibaka.  Other guys that they've drafted in the back part of the first round have fit well with them, too.  Steven Adams is a perfect fit for their system as a rim running, rim protecting, rebounding center.  Jeremy Lamb and Perry Jones III have shown flashes of potential and Andre Roberson has been inserted into the starting lineup this season in his second year.  There is no question that Presti and company have made their mark in the draft. They always seem to find the best combination of fit and potential.  

When the new CBA went into effect in 2011, building through the draft became the cheapest way to build a contender. The Thunder are the first and prime example of this.  Rookie scale contracts have the best bang for the buck; you can possibly have a rotation player contributing for less than $2 million on your roster.  On top of that, you can keep guys for 4-5 years after their rookie scale contract because they will be restricted free agents.  Other teams can only sign restricted free agents if their previous team doesn't match the offer.  With the right to match any offer, teams can keep guys for up to 9 years from the day that they're drafted if they want to. 

Oklahoma City trading James Harden wasn't about a fear of losing him in free agency without getting anything in return. He was coming off of his rookie contract. He was going to be a restricted free agent. The Thunder had the ability to match any offer for him the next summer. That is CBA 101.  It was made clear and evident through that trade that Oklahoma City was not willing to pay the luxury tax.  By being in a small TV market, it would definitely hurt even more for OKC to pay the tax to field a title contender. 

With the dramatic rise in salary cap due to the drastic increase in BRI (basketball related income), the luxury tax wouldn't have been as much of a problem for OKC as they probably would've thought.  Couple that with injuries to Westbrook, Ibaka, and now Durant, and you can guarantee that they're regretting the Harden trade.  That team was set up to run the league over for the next decade and in one trade, they may have shattered their window in half. Durant is going to be a free agent in 2016, and he could very well possibly leave.  If he leaves, you can guarantee Westbrook is leaving in 2017.  Instead of using their extra draft picks to make trades, they drafted players who have potential, but will take a while to develop into key cogs on a championship team. Also, Kendrick Perkins' big expiring contract will be up at the end of the season, which will throw away one of their best assets in a potential trade. 

Since the James Harden trade, the Thunder have made a total of zero trades. Zero.  None.  They've made draft picks and free agent signings in an attempt to add depth, but with a salary sheet as high as theirs and picks in the last few spots of the draft, you can only go so far with those two roster moves.  If OKC is wanting to make the playoffs and contend this season and next, they absolutely have to make a trade in the next two months.  Who knows how much longer Durant's foot and ankle problems will linger. Without him, OKC is swimming against a hard current to make the playoffs in the West.  Even if they do make the playoffs, playing on the road in the West for four straight series is going to be near impossible.  They need help. And it has to happen before this year's trade deadline.

In my opinion, Sam Presti is not the man to blame for the Harden trade.  It may seem that way, but if you're getting pressure from your bosses to keep your spending under a certain amount, you don't have a choice but to do it.  But right now, Presti and the Thunder have a choice that needs to be made.  Considering all of the reasons above, they have approximately two months to improve their chances of making the playoffs, winning a title in the next two seasons, and keeping Durant around in 2016.  We could go into extensive detail about what type of player they need, possible targets, possible deals, etc. but the bottom line is this... Their window is closing.  Just as fast as it seemed the Thunder's championship door was opened, it is being shut right in their faces.

No more waiting for players to develop. No more waiting for the team to be healthy. The time is now. If they wait to long, it will be too late.

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